November 12th, 2015 // 2:15 pm @ Oliver DeMille
Whether you like or dislike Hillary Clinton’s politics, she’s proven very effective in this year’s presidential debate. She knows policies forward and backward, on every topic that comes up in both domestic and foreign policy. She’s confident and sharp. She looks presidential to many on the Left and also to many independents.
So far, she’s been much better at debating than Jeb Bush or John Kasich. Donald Trump may improve, but to date he hasn’t shown any great debating skill either. As he puts it, this country needs a leader who will fix the economy and make the military strong again, not just another debater.
Trump has a lot of support for other reasons, but how he’ll do against Hillary on live TV has the Republican establishment concerned—even though his supporters say he’ll be much better in head-to-head matchups than with 8 or 10 people behind the podiums. Of course, the GOP establishment wouldn’t like Trump even if he were the best debater in history.
Likewise, the establishment doesn’t care much for Ben Carson. He isn’t the traditional debater by any means, but when he speaks, a lot of people stop and listen. It would be very interesting to see him debate Hillary Clinton. Who knows how such an event would go?
Many establishment types worry that in the Internet age (where most voters only see 1 or 2 clips from any debate, replayed over and over) Clinton would easily dominate against Carson, Trump, Rand Paul, Huckabee, and even Bush or Kasich. Whether this is accurate or not remains to be seen, but this is their concern.
That leaves establishment Republicans with four main choices: Christie, Fiorina, Rubio or Cruz. Neither Christie nor Fiorina has shown the ability to garner much support from either the GOP base or establishment. Some pundits also feel that Christie or Fiorina could come off looking too harsh against Hillary—perhaps winning on content but losing on likeability.
Many of the die-hard Republican establishment are now suggesting that the nomination may well come down to Rubio or Cruz. Both are very effective in the debates, and it is easy to picture either of them winning the general election sound-byte battle.
Rubio is young, energetic, knows the issues in depth and detail, polls well among women, Latinos, and swing-state voters, and is sharp, articulate, and good in a scrum. Many pundits predict he’d be especially effective on stage in a series of debates with Clinton. On paper, he’s just what the establishment is looking for (not quite as experienced at governing as Jeb or Kasich, but much better on the debate stage).
As for Cruz, the establishment hardly considered him a real candidate as recently as July. But after months of Trump and Carson leading the polls, they’re a lot more likely to stomach Cruz as the nominee. He has many of the same positives as Rubio, though he doesn’t poll as well among women, swing-state voters, or moderates. Plus he’s against the GOP establishment, not for it.
All this brings us back to a key question: In reality, aren’t Trump and Carson still ahead in many polls? The answer is yes. But a lot of establishment types are still convinced that neither Trump nor Carson will be the nominee. I disagree with their reasoning, because I think the voters will elect the person they want rather than follow the establishment’s recommendations.
But let’s just play along with the pundits for a minute and ask ourselves: if Trump or Carson isn’t the nominee, who will it most likely be? Five months ago, the overwhelming establishment answer to this question was Bush.
But that’s changed. With the image of multiple one-on-one debates against Hillary in their minds, many in the establishment have decided that Bush just won’t shine—while Rubio will.
If you’re not part of the establishment, none of this is particularly relevant to your view of the election. But it’s important to understand what is happening in the race, and why. Right now the specter of 2016 debates in the national spotlight against Hillary is reformatting the way GOP elites see the entire campaign.
That’s why the establishment now likes Rubio.
The truth is, this is all good for the Republican base. There’s a real chance in this election to finally elect a president who will actually reduce the national debt (which is now above $154,453 per tax payer), cut the size of government, and reboot the economy. A cynic will argue that this won’t happen no matter who gets elected, but there are candidates who are committed to this—and just might be able to pull it off.
It’s certainly worth a shot–because otherwise our country is in for a lot more painful decline.
If this election had gone the way the establishment predicted, with Bush sweeping the lead, the chance of real change would already be long gone. As it stands, a solid 60% of the GOP electorate wants a serious, major change in Washington and the White House. When they get down to actually voting, we’ll see how it all shakes out.
But there’s still a chance.
September 22nd, 2015 // 11:21 am @ Oliver DeMille
by Oliver DeMille
Emotions and Questions
It’s getting really bad in government right now. And a lot of Americans are deeply frustrated. Many of them are downright angry about the direction our nation is taking. This growing dissatisfaction is very important, and things seem to be getting a lot worse—very quickly.
Yet I keep hearing the same response. After writing several articles about different problems with the way Washington is handling things this year, people have asked me the same recurring question: “But what can Congress do? The President will just veto things. Congress is stuck. Only electing a Republican president will fix things.”
Or: “Without a Constitutional Convention, or a whole bunch of new justices on the Supreme Court, we can’t turn this around.”
Or: “Only some big Constitutional Amendments will make this right.”
My response? Wrong. On all counts.
The Big Problem(s)
There’s a faster, better, simpler way. And it’s written right in the Constitution. Also, the people can accomplish it without any of these major changes to government.
But we’re just not using it. Voters see problems in the direction Washington is taking the country, so we use our power as citizens to change things—through elections. We send Congressmen and Senators to reverse things we don’t like, but they don’t do much. Why? “Because they can’t,” people tell me. “Because the president will just veto whatever they do. Or the Court will just decree whatever it wants. We’ve got no power. Our votes don’t accomplish anything.”
This is a serious issue. In some ways, it’s our biggest national political problem these days. But let’s be very, very clear about what the real problem actually is. It’s not that Congress can’t do anything. In fact, it’s the opposite. The problem is that we’re not following the Constitution, and Congress is letting it happen. So are we, as voters.
Specifically, Congress can do something. And the Constitution is clear about what it must do. In fact, Congress is Constitutionally mandated to do something.
The Founder’s Way
The American founding fathers knew that situations like this would come up, so they wrote the Constitution in a very specific way. They gave the power of the purse strings to the House of Representatives for two vital reasons:
- First, because they knew that the power to fund or defund any government action was the ultimate power in the Constitution. It’s even more powerful than the executive’s authority to direct the military, for example, because if the House de-funds (or refuses to renew funding for) certain military programs, there won’t be any military personnel for the president to order around.
The same is true of everything else the government does. If Congress refuses to fund something, or funds it initially but then refuses to renew the funding when it’s time, that part of the government stops functioning. It won’t have any funds. No budget. No personnel. No staff. No petty cash. No anything. This is real teeth. And the framers gave it to the House so they would use it!
- Second, the framers gave this power only to the House of Representatives. Why? Because Congressmen are elected directly by the voters, and they are elected every two years. Thus if Washington gets off track, the voters can put people in the House who will make a real change. How? By not funding any part of the government that is a problem. Or, alternatively, not funding things the president likes until the government shapes up.
The framers felt so strongly about this that they made the entire House run for re-election every two years. Think of it: the voters can re-constitute the entire House of Representatives every 24 months. The whole thing. And this new House can totally rewrite the budget. All of it.
That’s real power. In fact, the president can issue executive orders right and left until he develops carpal tunnel, and until he uses up all the ink in the West Wing; but if the House doesn’t fund the president’s programs, they’re broke. Shut down. Insufficient funds. No dice. The House can refuse to fund anything, and that thing will go away.
The Court can even say this part of government should stay open, but the House will just nod, agree with the Court, and fund this program with exactly 8 cents. This isn’t a joke. This is fully in the power of the House. And the framers gave them this power on purpose—and expected them to use it as often as they wanted. The framers discussed this in detail in the following Federalist Papers 24, 25, 26, 30, 31, 32, 34, 35, 37, 41, 43, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 55, 56, 57, and 58. This was very important to them.
The president and the Court can rant and rave all they want, but the Constitution gives them no power over the purse. Only the House has this power. And the framers wanted the House to use this important power.
Where the Power Is
If the House won’t fund something, the other branches of government are stuck. The president or Court can call for volunteers to do the government work—but no official will get paid and the government entity will have no budget, unless the House says so.
The one exception to this is the salaries of Supreme Court justices, which the House can’t hold hostage. But everything else, including Court staffing and budgets, and certainly executive positions and programs, is fair game. The sky is the limit—if only the House will stand up and demand our rights.
Again, the framers did this on purpose. Why? For the specific reason of giving the people power over their federal government. If the government is doing things the people don’t want, the citizens can elect a new House every two years and the House can refuse to fund any new programs or renew any old programs that it chooses.
Obamacare? The House can refuse to fund it. In addition, the House can refuse to renew the payments on the national debt and/or any other budget item the president wants whenever it needs renewal, as long as Obamacare is still being funded. Planned Parenthood? Same. The House can simply stop funding any new or renewed spending the president wants, until the president agrees not to veto their bill. That’s power.
What about the Iran deal? The House can simply refuse to pass or renew any government spending (of any kind) that the president wants until the president agrees to change the deal. Or the House can only renew the Iran deal budget with a total expenditure of one dollar in next year’s budget—and refuse to spend any more on it. Or on anything else.
This is the people’s power. This is the House’s power. It is pretty much their only real power. If they don’t use it, they have very little power.
But if they do use it, they have the most power in Washington.
Check and Balance
“But that’s so drastic,” some people say. “Shutting the government down is out of bounds. It’s extreme!”
Actually, it’s no more drastic or extreme than a presidential veto. Both of these powers were put in the Constitution by the framers for the same reason—the veto power to allow the president to check Congress, and the power over the purse to allow Congress to check the president.
In fact, the Federalist Papers only discusses the veto power in depth in one paper (Federalist 73), but they discussed and re-discussed the House’s power of the purse in 22 papers! (listed above) This really mattered to them.
Sadly, while the president routinely uses his veto power, today’s Congress very seldom uses this funding veto power the framers gave it. But it should. Now. Frequently, if necessary. The president needs to be checked a lot more often! That’s why the framers wrote the Constitution this way. To be used.
Critics respond, “But what if the Court says that Obamacare is constitutional? Doesn’t that end the debate?” Well, yes, it ends the debate about constitutionality. But it doesn’t have anything to do with how much the House chooses to fund Obamacare. The Court can say something’s constitutional and the House can decide whether to fund that thing with $3 trillion or with 30 cents. Literally.
Again, this is precisely how the framers structured our government. And for this exact reason.
To reiterate: If the Court says some government program is Constitutional, the House accepts the Court’s decision. And the House can also choose to only give that program $5 of total funding for the next ten years. This is real. And the framers did this on purpose.
The House can do this any time any spending bill is before them. Or than can simply originate such a bill. And they should! If they don’t use the purse power when the president needs checked, they’re not really following the Constitution. They’re not doing a good job.
More and Less
As mentioned, some people say: “That’s so extreme.” But, again, it’s no more extreme than a veto. And no more extreme than the Court deciding if a government program is constitutional or unconstitutional. These are all routine constitutional tools: presidential vetoes, Court decisions, Senatorial refusals to confirm a presidential nomination, and House refusal to funding.
These are called checks and balances, and they are the key to our free government system. In fact, the five just listed are the most important checks and balances in the Constitution. And the framers said that the most important check of all, in all the Constitution, is the purse strings power of the House and the ability this gives the House to check the president. There’s a reason this was repeated so often in the Federalist: the citizens of the time wanted to be sure that if they ratified the Constitution, the president would be effectively checked.
“He will be,” the Federalist promised. How? Mainly by the House using the power of the purse.
And let’s be clear. The power of the purse is the exact level of extreme that the framers made it. They knew that the president would have the power of the military, the Court would have the power of legal decisions, the Senate the power of treaties—and they wanted the House to have an equal power.
In fact, read the founding fathers closely and they repeatedly said that the House should have a little bit more power than all the other branches of the federal government. For example, just read Federalist Papers 49 and 58, which show how the framers wanted the House to be a bit stronger than each of the other branches of the federal government.
And how did they make it stronger? They gave it the power of the purse, and told it to use this power often.
Let’s explore this in greater detail.
Reason and Media
The founders created this check so that the House would be strong enough to stop the president and/or the Court, and so that the people’s elections every two years would really matter. And could make a huge difference. The whole system was designed so the House could use the power of the purse to check and balance the president and the Court. Effectively, strongly, and frequently.
Indeed, the power of the purse, the House’s ability to simply withhold funding to the government on any new funding proposal, or renewed funding plan, was the “people’s veto” on the president and the Court. Yet today the president uses his veto power all the time, and the Court uses its decision-making power all the time, while the House almost never uses their veto power.
Why? Because when they do, the media convinces the American electorate that “shutting down the government” is somehow not part of the Constitution.
But the truth is the exact opposite. This House veto is absolutely vital. In Federalist 58 James Madison describes how and why it is the most important check on the federal government.
In other words, we’re just being bamboozled by the media. But it’s all a lie. The people’s veto is the House withholding funding. We should see it a lot! When we don’t, something’s wrong.
That’s how the framers designed it. On purpose. I keep repeating this point, but only because today’s Americans seem to have entirely forgotten it. We need to keep repeating it until America’s citizens realize just how much power they have—and start using it.
The framers wanted the House to use the purse powers to defund or refuse to renew funding on things the people don’t like—such as Bush’s torture policies or secret big data spying on American citizens, or today’s Obamacare, federal funding of Planned Parenthood, the Iran deal, and other proposals at this level. That’s why the framers set up the Constitution the way they did.
Would such actions sometimes shut down the federal government for a few days, weeks, or even months? Absolutely. The framers did this on purpose. This is Civics 101. This is the whole point of three separate branches of government operating with checks and balances.
Cause and Effect
It’s the most basic part of our governmental system. The three branches can check and balance each other. The president by veto, the Court by decision, the Senate by withholding confirmations, and the House by the power of the purse—by withholding funding.
That’s a good thing.
The president’s veto can’t stop that. When the House uses its power of the purse and refuses to fund the president’s programs, all the White House can do is whine to the media and hope the people get scared and beg for the government to start up again. The military still protects the nation during a government shutdown. And the states and local governments still keep the peace.
But the only Constitutional teeth the House has against the president is the power of the purse. And if the House never uses its Constitutional teeth against the president, then we’re living under a monarchy, not a democratic republic. The president will just do whatever he decides to do. That’s not freedom.
And the Constitution has the solution. The House is supposed to refuse to fund or renew funding for things every once in a while. James Madison and James Wilson thought it should do this frequently, just to make sure that the people were still in charge. If Congress isn’t shutting down the government once in a while, it’s because they’re letting the president get away with far too much. Period.
But somehow the media have convinced the American people to fight against this power. Ridiculous. It’s the people’s power. Why do we let the media tell us that we should give away this power of ours to the president? We clearly don’t understand the Constitution.
To repeat: If Congress isn’t shutting down government funding that our presidents want, and at times shutting down the government itself for a while, especially on big deals that most Americans don’t like, such as FISA courts, Obamacare and the Iran deal, then Congress simply isn’t doing it’s job.
And if the people are gullible enough to whine with the media when shutdowns happen, instead of cheering for our Congressmen who are finally doing their job, then we deserve the monarchy we’re getting.
It’s a lot like the recent argument between Chris Christie and Rand Paul. When Paul said that the government shouldn’t be spying on everybody’s phone calls and emails, Christie said that this kind of spying is essential for American security. Paul replied: “Then get a warrant!”
That’s not too much to ask. Just get a warrant. Follow the Constitution. Protect our freedoms. But Christie angrily shook his head in disgust, and argued that government officials shouldn’t have to get a warrant to spy on American citizens every day. In other words, “Why should we follow the Constitution? It’s inconvenient. And hard. Let’s just cut corners and ignore the Constitution.”
This attitude is absolutely wrong. And extremely dangerous. Our problems in Washington aren’t caused by vetoes and the checks and balances. Our problems are nearly all the result of not following the Constitution and its checks and balances.
The House needs to use its Constitutional power. It needs to refuse to fund president Obama’s government and programs at least as much as he uses the veto to stop what Congress wants. Same with bad agendas from George Bush, Bill Clinton, Richard Nixon, and any other president. That’s how the Constitution was and is designed to work.
Voters need to stop cringing when they hear the words “government shutdown.” This isn’t some massive failure like the media portrays. This is just another routine phrase like “presidential veto” or “Court decision.” We need to start calling it what it actually is.
Let’s get real. Many of our most pressing problems exist mainly because we’re not following the Constitution.
Just follow it.
Seriously, just follow it. Congressmen: Use the power of the purse to do what the people elected you to do. Stop playing games about whether the president will veto you or not. His veto can’t touch a refusal to fund, using the purse strings. The framers wrote the Constitution this way on purpose. The House can do this all by itself. It can even do it without the Senate. In fact, the Senate can do it as well—even without the House.
Just refuse to fund Obama’s agenda. Or the agenda of any other president who tries to use too much power (like sign a treaty with Iran by executive order instead of following the Treaty requirements in the Constitution).
That’s what the voters elected Congress to do in 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014.
For the current Congress: Don’t renew funding of Obama programs until he takes you seriously. Until he stays within the Constitution. Stop funding his agenda, and he’ll stop doing whatever he wants. He’ll be forced to stop the overreach.
Stop blaming the White House, and stop blaming the Court. It’s 100% in the power of the House. Or the Senate. 100%.
And the American citizenry needs to know this. If we don’t even know how our Constitution was written, we’ll just keep getting more and more bad government.
Note: Americans need to know this. Please pass it on…
September 18th, 2015 // 7:14 am @ Oliver DeMille
Why the Republican Establishment Is Surprised
(and a bit clueless)
by Oliver DeMille
Shock and Awe
The current presidential election has left most of the Establishment speechless. They are shocked by the rise of Bernie Sanders, shocked by the success of Donald Trump in the polls, and shocked by the popularity of Ben Carson. “Shocked” may actually be too weak a word. Apoplectic, maybe?
The Establishment is also surprised by the struggles of Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Scott Walker—all of whom were widely predicted to dominate this election cycle.
“Why is this happening?” is a popular question on many political news programs right now. Along with: “Will it continue?” “What will happen next?” and “Why are the voters so angry?”
The answer is fascinating. To get there, let’s start with the roots of the modern conservative movement. Initiated largely by William F. Buckley, Jr. and his colleagues in the 1950s and 1960s,[i] Conservatism 1.0 struggled, persisted, gained support slowly, and then rose to victory with the election and presidency of Ronald Reagan.
The Party of Reagan was based firmly on the view that “liberalism is bad.” In this environment, Reagan’s GOP found itself directly opposed to the Democratic Party of Franklin Delano Roosevelt and his progressive successors.
The ensuing debate pitted conservatism against liberalism in a few direct, simple ways: limited government versus big government, Constitutional originalism versus judicial activism, American exceptionalism versus European style internationalism, and individualism versus collectivism.
Republicans saw conservatism as good precisely because it espoused limited government, strict adherence to the Constitution, American leadership in the world, and individual freedoms. They saw liberalism as bad because it promoted big government, an activist Court, American subordination to international organizations, and widespread collectivism through higher taxes and increased government programs in all facets of life.
This was the battle of Postwar America. And conservatives saw themselves as the Keepers of Freedom and Family Values in this monumental conflict—warriors for the American Dream and the American way of life.
After the financial downgrade of the Soviet Union during the Reagan years and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the battle lines were slowly redrawn. New superpowers emerged on the world stage, and existing alliances began to unravel. Naturally, during the 1990s the old battles were replaced with new ones, and in the 2000s world and national allegiances were weakened, redirected, and reconceived.
But the hearts of many 20th Century conservatives (and liberals, for that matter), raised and steeped in the old battles, didn’t change.
A new cultural movement sprouted in the different soil after 1989. In technology, this shift was exemplified by Steve Jobs, and eventually Elon Musk. In business, the iconic figureheads were Bill Gates and Warren Buffett. And on the political front, the pioneers of a new model were Ross Perot and Ralph Nader, and later Bernie Sanders and Ron Paul.
Congressman Paul’s contribution to the new brand of conservatism that arose is hard to overstate. For example:
- It replaced Reagan’s 11th Commandment (“Thou shalt not criticize other Republicans”) with a focus on principles of freedom rather than institutional political parties.
- It walked a fine (and frequently uneasy) line between party loyalty and going independent, finally resting on the idea that independence is more important than party—but sometimes it’s possible to get both.
- It called into question widespread U.S. military interventionism.
- It reemphasized the Constitution as a central, literal theme, rather than a mere national symbol.
- It put actual free enterprise above the rhetoric of free enterprise (rhetoric that most Republican presidents had ironically combined with bigger government).
- It appealed strongly to populism—“this is the people’s government, not vice versa.”
- It switched the viewpoint of conservatism from “liberalism is bad” to “government by elite power brokers and their bureaucratic agents is bad.”
Paul himself wasn’t able to convert this revolution into a White House victory, but the revolution occurred nonetheless. And the 7th point of this revolution is perhaps the most important. It animated the Tea Parties, the elections of 2010 and 2014, and it is still growing today.
It also explains the shock of the current Republican Establishment with the ousting of Eric Cantor, the support for Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina, and the popularity of Ted Cruz in comparison to Jeb Bush or Scott Walker.
Mitch McConnell, John Boehner, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and most of the Republican Establishment are operating as if the GOP is still Reagan’s party. But this is debatable. A large segment of the party is now more aligned with Conservatism 2.0.
Thus the passionate battle now underway for the future of the GOP. And with each passing election cycle, the popularity of Conservatism 2.0 is increasing.
What 2.0 Conservatives Want
To these new conservatives, the idea that “liberals are bad” is SO forty years ago. The real issue now is that “government by elites” is bad.[ii] “The elite class is bad. It is corrupt, and it’s hurting us all. It is hurting America.” In fact: “Corruption is bad. And elites are corrupt.” This viewpoint is growing.
And to members of the new conservatism, Republican elites are just as bad as liberal elites. Many consider them even worse, like modern wolves in sheep’s clothing, claiming conservatism, and gaining support for their candidates and policies by invoking conservatism, while refusing to passionately or effectively fight for it.
It is important to clarify that the Ron Paul revolution didn’t win all 7 of its main themes. The new 2.0 conservatives never warmed up to items 3 and 4, for instance:
3-less U.S. military interventionism in the world
4-more emphasis on the literal words of the Constitution
But, on the other hand, they bought the following principles hook, line and sinker:
1-focus on principles of freedom rather than institutional parties
6-populism: forget “electability” and support the candidate we think will really bring about the changes we want
7-government by elites is corrupt and bad
This tectonic shift put Carson, Trump, Fiorina and Cruz at center stage.
It remains to be seen if a 2.0 candidate can become the nominee anytime soon. And even more significant is the question of whether a 2.0 president will actually apply item 5 from the list:
5-actual free enterprise is the goal, not just the rhetoric of free enterprise
Such an approach would lead to balanced budgets, reversal of the U.S. national debt, and a high-growth economy spurred by a massive rollback of anti-small business regulation. Right now many 2.0 voters are split. They’re asking themselves if Trump or Fiorina would actually lead a serious downsizing of government—or instead just expand government like past 1.0 conservative presidents.
As for Carson and Cruz, they seem clearly committed to this approach, but 2.0 conservatives wonder if they have the capacity or authentic will to actually pull it off.
If the 2.0 crowd ever coalesces around one candidate, he or she is going to be very hard to beat—in the primaries, and even in the general. A motivated 2.0 nation will be very persuasive among independents, women, and young voters. And 2.0 is very strong in the swing states. But 2.0 conservatives won’t “go for it” if they are at all uneasy about the candidate’s direction or ability. They are, in a sense, playing the long game, and won’t blow their one-shot-at-the-big-house political capital on an also-ran.
A long primary and general election fight is still ahead, and this war between conservatism 1.0 and 2.0 won’t be easily resolved. It has already turned nasty, and it will probably get a lot worse.
But if 1.0 wins, if Jeb or another Establishment candidate is the eventual nominee, this fight will rage on. Conservatism 2.0 is young, passionate, and has the benefit of a large and growing base. It may or may not get its way in 2016, but all indications are that it will eventually win the war.
When it does, expect the president it propels into the White House to alter American history as significantly and lastingly as the 1.0 movement did with Ronald Reagan.
(Read more discussion on these themes in FreedomShift, by Oliver DeMille)
[i] With significant support by additional voices including Leo Strauss, Milton Friedman, Leonard Read, Friedrich Hayek, Russell Kirk, Richard Weaver, Ludwig von Mises, Ayn Rand, and Margaret Thatcher, among others.
[ii] In comparison, Liberalism 2.0, supported early on by Hobson and Mencken and Keynes, among others, and perhaps most embodied in current events by President Obama (and espoused by Bernie Sanders), frequently operates on the idea that “America is bad.” European social democracy is promoted as the alternative, the ideal, and the goal.
September 10th, 2015 // 6:30 am @ Oliver DeMille
“U.S. median income is $42,000 per year, while the European median income is $27,000. That’s close to the average difference in annual income between U.S. high school grads ($28,000) and college graduates ($45,000). And the current elite class wants America to become more like Europe. This explains much of what Washington is doing these days.”
What Is Coming
Sadly, it isn’t quite that simple. The crisis is coming.
What’s the Crisis? Imagine this: It’s the summer of 2017, and we have another career politician in the White House. On the day of the 2016 election, or even earlier, we learned that none of the anti-Establishment candidates were going to win. Instead, the media informed us that the American electorate was putting another regular politician into office.
And since inauguration day, that president has followed a path similar to earlier presidents, from Bush I and Clinton, to Bush II and Obama: the national debt is still skyrocketing, our foreign policy is a disaster, the government is growing, increased regulations attack our prosperity every month, and the Supreme Court is legislating additional policies that hurt the nation.
On top of all this, the mandates of Obamacare are really kicking in now, increasing many small business costs by 30% or more annually—and as a result, those businesses that survive are laying off large numbers of employees. Your family health insurance premiums are up many thousands of dollars a year. The economy is still struggling, with less than a 2% growth rate, and good-paying jobs are increasingly scarce. At least one or two of your close friends or family members have lost their jobs.
In other words, it’s clear that the 2016 election has changed almost nothing. Terrorist attacks are increasing in both Europe and a few targeted attacks in the United States—as Iran uses its new $100 billion dollars to fund such violence. ISIS is still spreading, and China continues to increase its naval presence around the Pacific Rim. Moreover, Putin is becoming increasingly aggressive, not just in Eastern Europe but also in Syria, the North Pole, and the Pacific.
If the new president is a Democrat, there is a strong push to increase taxes and federalize even more state-level programs. If, contrast, if the president is a Republican… well, exactly the same thing is happening.
If we vote for the same kind of candidate we’ve voted for since 1988 (a career politician), we’re going to get the same thing we’ve experienced since…you know…1988. Meaning that career politicians are going to give us the same thing that career politicians have always given us:
Increased government. Very little positive change. A continual slide toward bigger government, higher debts, and decreased individual prosperity and freedoms.
This is the crisis ahead: More of the same. Except that it’s continually a bit worse, year after year, election cycle after election cycle.
“The definition of insanity,” you remind yourself, “is to keep doing the same thing while expecting different results.” In business, the prime directive is that to actually change an organization, you have to significantly change the leadership. If career politicians keep running the White House, little is going to change. This is true.
It’s frustrating. We don’t want to believe it, because we hope things will be different this time. But each election proves that it’s the reality. Career politicians do what career politicians do. Over and over.
Specifically: whatever career politicians say as candidates, once they’re elected they do what they’ve done before. Count on it. The following presidential candidates are not going to bring much change to Washington:
- Joe Biden
- Hillary Clinton
- Jeb Bush
- Chris Christie (to his credit, Christie is openly promising to do what career politicians do: just more of the status quo)
- Marco Rubio
- Scott Walker
- John Kasich (actually, at least Kasich has balanced two major budgets—the federal budget during the 1990s, and Ohio’s budget while serving as governor; thus, he’ll likely do this again—even if he doesn’t do much else, this is a pretty good thing)
But does anyone actually believe that if Jeb Bush is elected president we’ll reverse the national debt, repeal Obamacare, or seriously send education decisions and funding back to the states, where it belongs? No way.
The above candidates are part of the system; and reaching the pinnacle of the system they’ve spent their lives supporting won’t incentivize them to drastically change things. Whatever your political views, it’s clear that those who’ve made their lives in the system aren’t likely to alter it in any significant way. Period.
The following are a lot more likely to really change things:
- Bernie Sanders
- Carly Fiorina
- Rand Paul
- Donald Trump
- Ted Cruz
- Ben Carson
Say what you want about them, but they aren’t part of the typical Washington Establishment.
If elected, would one of them actually change things?
Maybe. Maybe not. But there is at least a chance.
In contrast, with the first list above, there’s no reasonable, rational expectation of real change.
Part II: What Will the Crisis Look and Feel Like for Americans?
Beyond the question of whether or not real change will come after the 2016 election, a deeper question is this: “If it doesn’t come, what will happen?”
In other words, “Where is our current national trajectory taking us?” First of all, if real change does come, it could take a number of different directions. That’s what change does. Genuine change is almost impossible to predict, because a significant change causes so many additional, cascading, changes.
If anyone on the first list above becomes our next president, I believe we have less than a 1% chance of changing course in a serious way that really shifts our national direction. Even if someone on the second list is elected, I’m convinced we’ll have less than a 40% chance of such a course correction (and 0% if it’s Bernie Sanders).
And let’s be clear: a course correction is desperately needed. If it doesn’t come, where are we headed?
Answer: In the early 1960s, many in the Euro-American elite class adopted the idea that the U.S. was beginning to outpace the nations of Western Europe—economically, technologically, and militarily. Moreover, they calculated that such a divide would be bad for business (specifically the business of the elites, which includes both the economic endeavors of the 1% and also their political influence).
To combat this growing divide, the elites began using their institutional, fiscal, and monetary influence to make the United States more like Europe. They began in earnest by dropping the gold standard in 1971, and providing an influx of elite money into higher education donations and endowments, and simultaneously with increased investment in and ownership of major media outlets.
Influenced by these funds and those who provided them, education began spreading the idea that America should be more like Europe, and the graduates of these programs increasingly dominated the campus scene through the seventies and eighties. By 1987, Allan Bloom decried what amounted to the Europeanized politicization of higher education in his bestselling book The Closing of the American Mind.
Choosing a Dream
Media increasingly reinforced this same message—“America should be more like Europe”—in stories and reports, from the major national newspapers to the Big 3 television networks. Nearly all cable channels and Establishment-supported Internet news outlets followed suit.
Among Establishment policy makers, Samuel Huntington’s writings on “Civilizations” and Francis Fukayama’s “End of History” essays pointed U.S. financial-, domestic-, and foreign-policy institutions (and bureaucracies) in the same direction.
Where does this leave us today? The “American Dream” includes the ideal that each household should achieve home ownership, financial independence (at least by the time of retirement), cars, savings, education for the kids, and a better lifestyle for each additional generation. In contrast, a middle class family in Europe typically lives in an apartment, has fewer children than American families, owns (on average) less than one car, and expects decreasing financial opportunities for coming generations.
To put this in financial terms, the U.S. median income is $42,000 per year, while the Western European median annual income is $27,000.
While it may not appear so at first, these numbers are drastically different—especially if you are applying for a home or vehicle loan, trying to start a business, deciding how many children to have, or funding a child’s college education. Indeed, an American family of three making the European median income of $27,000 a year typically lives in an apartment and has approximately $4,050 a year or less in disposable income. The U.S. median income of $42,000 upgrades the family to a home and $12,180 in annual disposable income.
That’s roughly the same as the average difference in annual median income between U.S. high school grads ($28,000) and college graduates ($45,000). That’s right: the direction of U.S. median income is headed toward less than the average wages of high school grads.
This comparison is not overstated. This is where we’re headed. Of course, the affluent classes won’t suffer this same fate, but a lot more Americans will become part of the struggling class. Just like in Europe.
Who we vote for matters.
If we want real change, we need to vote for something different.
August 27th, 2015 // 10:00 am @ Oliver DeMille
The Questions of Today
The professional political and media class is surprised (“shocked” may be more accurate) by what they are witnessing right now in the U.S. presidential campaign. Most of their predictions are turning out to be wrong, and much of their commentary is consistently off.
What is going on? And why is it happening?
The answer is fascinating. America is currently witnessing a different kind of politics–not because Washington has changed, but rather because the voters are taking a very different approach than they have in the past.
In a nutshell: a huge number of voters are simply demanding that politicians do something very different. This can be summed up in the following words, spoken directly to our politicians:
“Why won’t you just do what you said you’d do?”
Lies from the Left
This is a big deal. Voters are frustrated with the inability (or unwillingness) of politicians to simply deliver on their promises. For example, President Obama promised that under his health care law, we would be able to keep our doctor if we wanted to. We would also be able to keep the same health care providers. And our costs wouldn’t go up very much, if at all.
These all turned out to be false. Many people aren’t allowed to keep their same doctor or health care providers. And in 2015 insurance premiums went up around 30% for many companies and families—in addition to major increases already in 2014. With the additional details that kick in during 2016, premiums will go much higher in the next two years.
The President also promised that his policies would bring more jobs. But the reality is that while the unemployment rate has gone down, the large majority of people with new jobs obtained during the Obama era are making a lot less each month than they did before. The promise of more jobs turned out to be technically true, but it feels totally false, like something only a lawyer or a genie could make up.
Lies from the Right
And Republicans haven’t done any better. Voters were promised that if they elected Republicans in 2012 and 2014, these Congressmen would repeal Obamacare and seriously tackle the national debt. The electorate responded by putting Republicans into Congress in record numbers—in both of these midterm elections.
But once in office, the GOP promises were promptly forgotten. No repeal. No debt reduction. Voters know that Congress can defund programs at will, and can even overcome a veto by shutting down non-essential government functions to get a handle on the debt and/or defund Obamacare. This takes tenacity and guts, but it works.
Instead, voters who put Republicans into the majority in both houses are lectured by Boehner and McConnell about what “can and can’t” be done. But Boehner, McConnell and their allies didn’t do the honorable thing and loudly promote such lectures before the elections. Rather, they boldly promised big changes and then smugly turned their backs on such promises once elected. Ted Cruz was right to call this a “lie.” Voters feel increasingly duped by the political class.
The top leaders in both parties simply didn’t follow through on what they said they would do.
Just Do What You Promised
All of this is front and center in the voters’ minds right now. They don’t want to elect politicians, because they don’t believe what politicians promise. Why should they? Both parties have failed, repeatedly, to fulfill their promises. Most people have reached the conclusion that this is just the way politicians are now. They don’t do what they promise.
In voter logic, the only intelligent response is to elect non-politicians. To reject politicians and find people who will just do what they say they’ll do. To find someone—anyone—who simply tells the truth and then does it.
Thus anyone who looks even remotely like a politician is suspect. For a growing number of voters, everything a politician-looking candidate says during the campaign is probably not going to happen after the election.
So any candidate that seems to fit this bill, doesn’t get much support. This is a real problem for Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, John Kasich, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Lindsey Graham, etc. It’s also a problem for anti-establishment candidates like constitutionalist Rand Paul and tea partier Marco Rubio—they just seem too much like Washington insiders.
The candidates who are surprising the political pros are those who don’t seem much like politicians at all. Thus very different-sounding candidates like Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina and Ted Cruz have piqued the electorate’s interest.
“Will one of them just do what he/she is promising?” This is the question many American voters are asking right now.
The Media vs. The Electorate
The media focuses on things like policy details, tone, offensive behavior, and stances on the issues—but most voters don’t care much about these things as much as electing someone who will do what they said they’d do. They’re used to candidates who are politically correct, talk a lot about policy positions, but then get elected and fail to deliver what they promised.
With such a track record, why should voters care about policy plans? They’re going to be forgotten anyway.
Instead, voters are now trying to feel out the candidates, hoping that one of them is the kind of person who will actually just do what he/she promised—even after the election.
If voters think they’ve found such a person, they don’t even have to agree with him/her on every policy. They’ll look past differences, if they can just get someone who will deliver.
Media and political professionals who don’t figure this out are in for a lot more shocking surprises, because the last two decades of hearing promises during campaigns, getting excited to vote based on such promises, and then seeing your chosen candidate get elected but fail to do what he promised.… Well, voters are just plain sick of it.
Voters are too smart now. They’ve been fooled too many times in recent elections.
If they don’t think any of the candidates will follow through on promises, voters will turn off and stay home on election day. As a result, the typical establishment candidates will win. But if voters really believe that a candidate will deliver—he or she is going to ignite a powerful following.