Government

AFTER THE ELECTION: The Year of Danger

November 8th, 2012 // 5:51 pm @ Oliver DeMille

The year ahead is a time of danger.

The election of 2012 is over, and you are either happy or upset with the outcome—or, like many independents, you are predictably frustrated with the whole system.

Whatever the case, the next few months is a time of real danger in our nation.

During elections, energy and citizen participation is high.

After elections, it reaches all-time lows. People of all political views tend to focus on other things and leave governance to the politicians.

America has serious challenges ahead, and many of them kick in right at the beginning of 2013.

Moreover, during the next year we will almost certainly determine whether or not the United States is going to fall off the looming financial cliff.

Concerns include:

• The rapidly growing debt
• The overwhelming reality of entitlements
• The growing deficit
• The weakening national credit rating
• The struggling role of the U.S. Dollar as the world’s reserve currency
• Various looming bubbles in the market
• A coming inflation crunch
• A further middle-class squeeze on jobs and discretionary income
• A tax rate that is driving more businesses abroad (or out of business)
• A very nervous small business community that is uncertain about growth or hiring
• Weak consumer demand that is causing businesses to produce less (and cut jobs)
• A rapidly expanding government sector that is threatening free enterprise

Washington needs to address these concerns quickly to relieve business anxiety that we’ll just see more of the same (or worse) from the government for the next four years.

After all, without the necessity of reelection the Obama Administration could be truly anti-business.

Hopefully, in contrast, President Obama will see this as an opportunity to really work with Republicans to fix these major national challenges.

The larger problem is that democratic societies seldom take action until they feel direct pain.

Indeed, democratic nations are notoriously bad at anticipating pain and taking action ahead of time, so they seldom stop crises but rather wait until it is too late to get serious about solutions.

We need real solutions in the months and year just ahead, and we can’t afford to wait for more crises.

We must immediately address the economic realities above (and others like them), at the very time the citizenry is the least likely to stay actively involved.

Whatever your political views, America needs you to stay enthusiastically engaged in watching and influencing government. Now more than ever.

Right now begins the year of danger in government and the future of the economy, and only the first branch of government—the people—can truly ensure that things go well.

The alternative is further major economic downturn.

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Oliver DeMille is the chairman of the Center for Social Leadership and co-creator of Thomas Jefferson Education.

He is the author of A Thomas Jefferson Education: Teaching a Generation of Leaders for the 21st Century, and The Coming Aristocracy: Education & the Future of Freedom.

Oliver is dedicated to promoting freedom through leadership education. He and his wife Rachel are raising their eight children in Cedar City, Utah.

Category : Blog &Citizenship &Current Events &Economics &Entrepreneurship &Featured &Government &Independents &Leadership &Liberty &Mission &Politics

The Presidential Debates

September 26th, 2012 // 7:38 pm @ Oliver DeMille

And What They Should Be

People are getting tired of the presidential election.

It’s too much bad news, week and after week, too many talking heads just saying the same old negative things about the other side, and too many mistakes, gaffes and 10-second clips getting blown way out of proportion.

But all of that is just the way politics works, and people are used to it.

The really frustrating thing in the 2012 presidential election is that neither of the two big candidates has given us a clear, inspiring plan for the next four years.

Both point out flaws of their opponent, and both try to explain away their own unfavorables, but neither have just looked the American people in the eyes and told us what they will do for us if elected.

David Brooks of The New York Times is right that Romney could totally sway this election if he would just ignore the fluff, turn wonky, and outline three or four main things he’s going to do in the next four years.

Romney spent his business life successfully using power point presentations and clear plans to turn things around; the United States needs the same thing right now.

“My fellow Americans,” he should begin the debate. “I’m not going to spend our time tonight talking about every issue under the sun, or answering every question the media thinks is important. We’ve been doing that for years, and it hasn’t gotten us where we want to be.

“What America needs now is leadership. There are four issues that will determine whether the next four years are a time of success and a return to prosperity, or a time of decline. It’s time for our leaders to tell us the truth: if we fix these four things, our future will be bright. If not, it won’t.

“So, others can talk about whatever they want, but I’m going to focus only on these four things that will make all the difference in America’s future. If you don’t like that, elect someone else. If you elect me, I’m going to fix four things. Here they are:

#1           jobs

#2           health care

#3           the economy (including entitlements, the national debt, government
spending, deficits and our credit rating)

#4           oil dependency

“So, for you who are asking the questions tonight, if you ask about how we’ll fix these things, I’ll tell you. If you ask me anything else, I’ll tell you my entire presidency is going to focus on these four things. Period. That’s what we need our leaders to do, and that’s what I’m going to do. The only other thing I’m going to focus on is to maintain a strong national defense.

“That’s what my presidency will be, a strong national defense and fixing these four things. That’s what America needs for the next four years, and as president I will make sure these four problems get fixed.

“I have a full written plan on how to accomplish each of these 4 priorities, and it has just been posted to my website in the last minute since I started speaking. I hope every American will read it. And in the days and weeks ahead I’m going to clearly explain this plan in every speech I give and every question I answer.

“If any of the media want to ask questions about the plan, I’ll answer them. If any citizens have questions, my website has a place to send questions and my team and I will answer every single question you send.

“I want every American to clearly understand exactly how we’ll fix these four problems, and to ask every question anyone has until we all fully understand the plan. Then you can decide whether to vote for me, based on a clear knowledge of what I will do in the next four years as your president.

“Because if I’m elected, I’m going to fix these four things. Nothing will distract me from these four priorities, because these are the greatest challenges for our nation right now and only by overcoming them can America truly be the great nation we should be.”

Then he should stick to his guns and only, only, answer questions about national defense and fixing these four things.

He should constantly refer to his plan, he should know his plan so well that he can refer to it in detail and answer every question, and Paul Ryan should do the same.

He should have the plan outlined in simple words in a short power point presentation on his website, and he should have a longer power point for those who want more details.

He should provide the full plan written out, word for word, and available for every person who wants to read it.

He should print his plan with an engaging cover and mail it to every home in the United States.

He should sell it in the bookstores, and have volunteers give it away to their friends.

He should talk about nothing but the plan, and he should refer to the plan in every setting and spread it far and wide.

He should buy prime time specials on television and give the power point and answer questions on live tv.

Frankly, Ron Paul should do exactly the same thing.

And if Romney doesn’t do it, President Obama should do it. In fact, if Romney does it President Obama should do it too.

Imagine a debate where both candidates are passionately dedicated to fixing these four things, and the question just becomes which plan we as voters think is best.

For once, we’d have a really excellent election.

Note that President Obama hasn’t given us a plan for the next four years any more than Governor Romney has.

They have both talked about dozens of issues and concerns, but neither has taken a stand about the future of American greatness, how they will fix the economy, or any other clear plan for the next four years.

We are left to vote on personality, ideology, lack of mistakes, partisan trust, or our general sense of who will do best.

But we should be choosing between specific plans, voting on the one we think will be best for our nation.

Besides, presenting and sticking to such a plan would just be good politics!

Tell us what you’re going to do, have an excellent plan for backing it up, and hold the nation to account: “I promise you this,” he should say. “If you elect me, four years from now these four things will be fixed. The biggest challenges of our nation will be met and overcome. And America will be great again. It will be like the difference that happened when Reagan beat Carter.

“On the other hand, if you elect Mr. Obama, four years from now you will still be struggling with all four of these problems. The debt will be bigger, our credit rating will most likely be further downgraded, we will be spending and borrowing even more, and the deficits will be bigger. Most importantly, unemployment will still be high and too many families will still be without jobs.

“In addition, if you elect Mr. Obama, the health care law will increase taxes and spread even more government regulations that hurt the economy. And entitlements will be bankrupting us by 2016.

“Four years from now, we will either live in an America where these things are fixed, or in an America where these problems are just as bad or worse. It’s up to you as voters. If you want a president who will fix these four things, you know what to do. My name is Mitt Romney, and I’m running for president of the United States in order to fix these four things!”

This election is still up for grabs.

Imagine the power of the following speech to sum up the debate: “My name is Barack Obama, and I’m running for president in order to fix these four problems, the four greatest challenges America will face the next four years. If you elect me, I’ll fix all four: #1 jobs, #2 healthcare, #3 the national debt and deficit, and #4 our oil dependency. These four things will be the focus of my entire presidency. If you want these things fixed by the time of the next election, vote for me.”

This is winning politics, whoever uses it.

Alas, I fear the debates will be far less entertaining.

Or, in other words, in four years these four serious problems—along with China—will probably still be America’s biggest challenges.

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Oliver DeMille is the chairman of the Center for Social Leadership and co-creator of Thomas Jefferson Education.

He is the author of A Thomas Jefferson Education: Teaching a Generation of Leaders for the 21st Century, and The Coming Aristocracy: Education & the Future of Freedom.

Oliver is dedicated to promoting freedom through leadership education. He and his wife Rachel are raising their eight children in Cedar City, Utah.

Category : Blog &Current Events &Featured &Government &Leadership &Politics

An Election Disaster

September 24th, 2012 // 4:19 pm @ Oliver DeMille

There are six weeks to go before the 2012 election, and currently President Obama is way ahead.

If the election were held today, according to the average of polls, not only would President Obama be re-elected but he would sweep the election.

This election will come down to the top swing states, as I’ve stated in the past, and right now President Obama leads in all eight of the biggest swing states.

He’s eight for eight.

He’s also ahead by 7%, 5% and 5% in the top three swing states, Florida, Ohio and Virginia, respectively.

In presidential politics, 3% is a landslide and 5% is a huge mandate for change.

The reason for this increasing lead by President Obama is simple.

Latino voters believe the Republican party in general, and Governor Romney specifically, is not on their side—not in favor of more open immigration and, in contrast, likely to take a harder line against immigrants.

The short-term concern for Republicans is that Romney has a lot of ground to make up and not much time to do so.

The bigger worry for Republicans but also for independents is that this will lead to House and Senate elections that give a lot more seats to Democrats and bring increased taxes, a bigger national debt, larger deficits, and more runaway spending and regulating in the next four years.

The long-term problem for Republicans is that as a Party they are seen as anti-Latino.

The sad thing about this is that most Republicans who are anti-immigrant and anti-Latino are just plain wrong—like the South was wrong about slavery before the Civil War.

Freedom should be extended to everyone, regardless of race, religion, gender or country of birth.

If you don’t believe this, you don’t really believe in freedom.

America used to be the beacon of freedom to the world, and the Statue of Liberty invited all immigrants to come to America and get freedom.

Two things killed America’s role as the light of freedom to the whole world: 1) we became a welfare state, and 2) we stopped being an open society that passionately encouraged immigrants to come here.

To solve our current direction away from freedom and into decline, we need to adopt two grand strategies: (1) stop giving welfare to anyone and basing a government on the welfare ideal, and (2) drastically open immigration to any honest, hard-working people around the world who are seeking freedom.

We should implement the first change wisely and in stages in order to do it right, but the second one can be enacted almost immediately.

In short, we need a rebirth of free enterprise and the widespread freedom and prosperity it always brings.

America needs to stand for freedom again, not build walls to keep people out.

And as for the future of the welfare state, unless Republicans change their position to wildly pro-immigration, the Democrats are going to keep winning and expanding a welfare society.

The three upcoming presidential debates may be interesting theater, but unless Republicans get serious about being the freedom party there isn’t much chance they’ll win the White House on November 6.

Something could change in the weeks ahead, but unless it does the Republican leadership is going to have to take a good hard look at itself if it wants any success in 2014 or 2016.

Anti-Latino parties aren’t going to win much in the United States today.

In all of this, independents are rightly frustrated because one party stands for more welfare, and the other stands for building fences that keep freedom limited to those who already have it.

That makes neither party the party of freedom, and neither the party of progress.

The only solution is to put as many anti-welfare and pro-immigrant candidates as possible into the Senate and House, as well as into state and local governments.

And in the long-term, it’s time to get over the desire to withhold freedom and opportunity from immigrants.

It’s time for America to once again stand for freedom for everyone—immigrants and everyone else—and to do so boldly and without apology.

We either stand for freedom, or we don’t.

And freedom means freedom for everyone, or it really isn’t freedom.

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Oliver DeMille is the chairman of the Center for Social Leadership and co-creator of Thomas Jefferson Education.

He is the author of A Thomas Jefferson Education: Teaching a Generation of Leaders for the 21st Century, and The Coming Aristocracy: Education & the Future of Freedom.

Oliver is dedicated to promoting freedom through leadership education. He and his wife Rachel are raising their eight children in Cedar City, Utah.

Category : Blog &Citizenship &Current Events &Featured &Government &Independents &Leadership &Liberty &Politics &Statesmanship

The Reality Behind the 2012 Election

September 4th, 2012 // 2:18 pm @ Oliver DeMille

In 2010 I wrote the following article about the upcoming 2010 election. Today the principles are the same, but with the bigger stakes of a presidential election. Here is what I wrote:

It’s the Economy

The economy is struggling, and it is driving the election. As so many have said since the Clinton campaign made it popular in the nineties, “It’s the Economy, Stupid!”  And many Americans believe the economy will continue to decline.

If it does, the Obama Administration has very few tools to respond.

The White House has based its entire economic policy on an ideological belief in government spending and intervention, but further economic downturn will require it to take serious action.

What can it do that it hasn’t already tried? How much more can it spend? And at what point will it accept that such spending isn’t delivering fixes to unemployment and the economy as promised?

If the government increases spending, promotes more stimulus, raises taxes or increases regulations (or all of the above, which is what it has done so far), it will run into major difficulty. So far none of these have fixed the economy… And the major issues fueling dislike of the Obama agenda are unemployment… the health care law and other increased government regulation, and  massive government spending.

Some economists, like Paul Krugman, say the problem is that the stimulus should have been much bigger in the first place—since now there is very little support for more government spending. The White House seems to agree, and it is preparing to raise taxes on big business.

The problem with this strategy is that very few small businesses have a lot of extra cash right now. Big business, in contrast, has a lot more extra cash than the whole of government stimulus.

Unfortunately, with the Obama Administration promising to end tax cuts to big business, these companies are unlikely to hire or spend their extra money. And if President Obama does raise taxes on big business, they are likely to simply hold their cash or spend it in other countries.

A lot of corporations are seriously considering moving more of their operations abroad to find more favorable environments for profit. Many have already made this move, taking jobs and money with them.

Some countries are aggressively advertising their low tax rates to lure international investors. For example, a full-page ad in The Economist reads: “Fact: the Gulf’s lowest taxes are in Bahrain. As are the region’s lowest living and operation costs. Which leaves more of the cake for you and your business.”[i]

A lot of nations are using similar campaigns to lure investment, while the U.S. is actively adopting policies which drive capital away.

Why would businesses which can afford to move stay in the U.S. to face more White House attacks and increasing taxes and regulations?

This not only won’t help our economy, it will increase unemployment, make credit harder to obtain for small businesses, and convince consumers to buy less.

In short, it will significantly hurt the economy. The Obama plan claims to help small business, but in fact its proposed policies will do the opposite.

One Harvard economist points out that our debt load is now even worse than that of Greece,[ii] which has just experienced major economic collapse and is being bailed out by international banks.

It’s the Economy

The impact on the elections is obvious. If a lot of Republicans win, they will have more influence to argue for more business-friendly policies.

But there is no guarantee they will do so. After all, the Bush Administration significantly outspent the Clinton Administration.

No matter what happens in the election, the Obama team needs to take a different route if they want to reboot the economy.

Two years into Ronald Reagan’s presidency, the economy was struggling and unemployment was above 10%.

Reagan pushed to cut taxes, reduce government spending, and, perhaps most importantly, sent out the message—over and over—that government needed to be reduced and that private business was the hope of the economy.

In retrospect, spending actually increased under Reagan, but his consistent message of promoting business, love for business growth and free enterprise, and the need to cut government and spending made business feel safe.

He spoke optimistically of business on all levels, and lauded the opportunities provided by free enterprise and free markets.

The result? Businesses hired and entrepreneurs went to work. Business boomed. Growth quickly soared to 8% (the Obama recovery was around 1%) and unemployment rates came down.

The 1980s became an era of economic boom, which grew into the roaring 1990s.

Too often the opposite message is coming from Washington.

The White House repeats its “unfriendly to business” message over and over, calling businessmen “fat cats” and telling young people to work for non-profits and not go into business.

It constantly promotes increased government spending and ever-expanded regulations which drastically increase the cost to start and build businesses.

It has publicly attacked the Chamber of Commerce, the ultimate small-business advocate, and in general it has sounded angry and dangerous to business.

Now, in the name of “helping small business,” it is increasing taxes on big business and people who succeed in small business—many of those above the $200,000-$250,000 threshold are small entrepreneurs.

And, as I said above, many big businesses which hold a lot of cash are making plans to take it abroad.

These realities are a serious problem…

It’s the Economy

Of course a lot of Republicans support Republican politicians and a lot of Democrats support Democrats. But President Obama was swept into office by independents, and now most of them no longer support his policies.

Independents are mostly for fiscal responsibility, lower taxes and lower levels than the current government intervention in the economy. Indeed, many of them supported Candidate Obama because they disliked the Bush Administration’s high-spending, over-regulating policies.

It seemed to independents that Candidate Obama promised new leadership and a new direction for Washington. Many independents have been shocked and dismayed by the Obama Administration’s move to the left. But they could have supported this surprise if there wasn’t such a lack of new-era leadership.

For example, as an independent, I expected President Obama to be liberal. I closely read The Audacity of Hope before the election and I was clear that he would govern from the left.

But I also thought he would bring a new brand of leadership—a fresh, charismatic, Generation-X-style emphasis on American growth and vibrancy rather than old-line Washington politics.

Unfortunately for all Americans (left, right and independent), that did not occur.

Many independents feel abandoned by President Obama less for his liberalism than for his return to “Washington politics as usual.” This shift occurred within days of inauguration, and his popularity among independents has consistently fallen ever since.

We live in an era where the key to winning elections is to combine support from your base (liberal or conservative) with the support of independents. This is true nationally and in most locales as well.

For Democrats, who will get the bulk of Democratic votes no matter what, the goal right now should be to bring in independents by pushing through many tax breaks and finding ways to de-regulate business requirements…

It’s the Economy, Really!

The Democratic narrative seems to be that without the stimulus the recession would have been much worse.  But many independents don’t buy it. They didn’t like many of President Bush’s policies, but they are just as frustrated with the current administration’s strategies.

They believe the stimulus was a flop and health care and other massive regulations have seriously hurt the economy. They blame both Obama and Bush for the current economic mess. But since Bush is out of the discussion, their frustration is pointed at President Obama.

American independents aren’t the only ones who feel that the Obama Administration’s stimulus and massive spending/regulating strategy has worsened the economy.

Some international analysts, for example, say: “[The stimulus] has not worked. The whole thing has failed. And that is why America, of the big economies, is the one that is now teetering on the brink”; and “I think in Europe it’s very clear the direction the Europeans are going down, which is to basically start bringing public debts and deficits under control.

Obama is still worried about the polls….Personally, I think the best thing they could do is probably just sit on their hands in the U.S….”[iii]

If the plan is to spend more, tax more and increase regulations, then I agree—let the politicians sit on their hands and do nothing!

But what if, instead, they cut taxes, deregulated small business, changed the healthcare law to incentivize business investment, and extended an olive branch of friendship and thanks (yes, genuine gratitude) to entrepreneurs and business for their vital contributions to our prosperity?

Washington needs to reverse the bad-for-business policies accumulated since 1987—or at least during the Bush/Obama growth of anti-business policy since 2001. If this sounds impossible, we may be in for a very long period of economic struggles.

Conclusion: It’s the Economy!

The future of the economy depends on the willingness of small business to take risks and the willingness of big business to hire, spend and invest.

Until our national leaders are willing to cut government spending, lower taxes, reduce government interventions in almost every sector of business, and show more genuine friendliness to business, our economic problems will continue.

Whatever the results of the 2010 election, Washington has got to make friends with business. We simply must make those who spend their lives in business feel safe and excited about building, hiring, investing, growing and spending. Otherwise, more economic troubles are ahead.

We desperately need real leadership in Washington, leadership which will actually incentivize, promote and reboot the economy. The best case scenario would be for the Obama Administration to lead out in this direction…

This pro-business outline (cut taxes, significantly reduce regulation on business, get government spending under control, and make friends with business) should be the guiding principle to every voter in every election across the nation this year.

We need to pay little or no attention to political party and instead elect leaders who will help kick-start, encourage, and stimulate the economy. This is a true mandate, and our national future depends on it.

This is just as true in the 2012 election as it was when I wrote it before the 2010 election.

Category : Blog &Current Events &Economics &Government &Politics

We Have a Problem; We Have a Huge Problem!

September 4th, 2012 // 12:53 pm @ Oliver DeMille

The recent energy and posts about my article on why it is important to vote once again reinforced that we have a seriously, lasting, structural problem in America. Almost everything about the election is promoting this same message, though few have recognized it.

We get all up in arms about this candidate or that, we emotionally buy in to one candidate and then label everyone else by which candidate they support, and we spend a lot of time actively engaged in politics. We blog, we argue, we discuss, we read, we talk politics to friends, family, co-workers and anyone else who will engage.

All of that is great. None of that is the problem. The more energy we give to politics in election years, the better (within the bounds of decency, of course).

No, the problem is that on November 7 most of this passion and behavior will stop. Oh, the most zealous participants in the 2012 election will still be griping or celebrating well into January, but within a about 100 days after the 2013 inauguration, no matter who wins, nearly all Americans will give little thought to politics for the next four years. A few will get involved again during the 2014 midterm election, but the large majority won’t. It won’t be polite anymore to discuss politics at dinner, and most people won’t.

So yes, Houston, we have a problem. As a nation of citizens we mostly ignore our government, a respectable few get excited during elections, and a lot get involved briefly in presidential elections. But we turn off our citizen-passion when elections are over and its time to govern.

And that is precisely the worst time to do it. During elections, candidates are much more likely to listen to the people, to care what the citizenry thinks. So if you’re going to take a break from politics, do it right now. Stay with me and let me tell you why.

The election will come and go, and the leaders of both parties and at all levels (national, state, county, and local) will listen to the people. Here’s the kicker: Then, when the people get back to ignoring politics, the dangerous time will begin. Politicians will focus on governing, and terrible policies that reduce our freedoms will be passed–month after month.

This is how freedom is lost.

The best-case scenario is for the citizens, at the least the vocal ones who care (and you can tell who they are right now during the election season), to be passionate, vocal and deeply involved during elections and also every day between elections.

That’s called citizenship. And it is the basis of all lasting freedom.

No elite group (politicians or a wealthy class or any other) is going to protect the freedom of the people as well as the people. And it doesn’t take 90-100% of the regular people, just about 10-20% who are passionate and vocal. Again, if you are one of those people right now in this election season, you are one of those we need between elections.

In fact, we need you even more between elections, and we need you to be even more vocal, passionate and daily involved than we do now.

“But right now, the politicians will listen, so isn’t this the most important time?” someone will ask.

Answer: Yes, this is a vital, an essential time to use influence while the leaders listen. But when the elections are over and the leaders stop listening, your influence and voice and focused participation will be even more, way more, necessary–because most people like you won’t be doing anything.

WE HAVE A HUGE PROBLEM, and it will begin in earnest on November 7, 2012. We need you to be part of the solution.

I’m not suggesting you do less during the election. I’m suggesting, in fact, that you give it your very best.

Then, starting November 7 and running for the next four years, America needs you to do even more–a lot more.

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Oliver DeMille is the chairman of the Center for Social Leadership and co-creator of Thomas Jefferson Education.

He is the author of A Thomas Jefferson Education: Teaching a Generation of Leaders for the 21st Century, and The Coming Aristocracy: Education & the Future of Freedom.

Oliver is dedicated to promoting freedom through leadership education. He and his wife Rachel are raising their eight children in Cedar City, Utah.

Category : Blog &Citizenship &Culture &Current Events &Government &Independents &Leadership &Liberty &Mission &Politics &Statesmanship