Government

A No-Party System

February 10th, 2011 // 4:33 pm @ Oliver DeMille

Paine versus Burke

It is popular to describe the differences between two big divisions of each major political party.

For example, Democrats are sometimes called cluster liberals (who “view politics as a battle between implacable opponents”) versus network liberals (who “believe progress is achieved by leaders savvy enough to build coalitions,” even with the other party).

The two main types of Republicans are usually portrayed as fiscal versus social conservatives.

The divide may actually be more simple, according to a recent article by Yuval Levin (“Burke, Paine and the Great Law of Change” in The Point Magazine).

The roots of the two great American types of liberalism, says Levin, are found in the debates between Edmund Burke and Thomas Paine.

In truth, Americans aren’t really conservatives at all: “Conservative” means to remain the same, and since the American founding (indeed since the Pilgrims and others left the old countries) nearly all Americans have rejected the conservative royal model of Europe’s past. Nearly all Americans believe in progress and in changing government to meet new challenges.

In contrast to the European definition of “conservative,” American conservatism has come to mean holding on to old values, lessons and institutions — which is the Burke side of the 1790s debate. Burke said society was best served by an incremental approach to building on the best lessons of the past.

Paine believed, on the other hand, that every generation should reevaluate the current government and society and use reason to change whatever it thinks might improve things.

Paine view was that we

“…should not be bound by the past, but should choose anew society’s design…Burke thought Paine put too much stock in reason. Do not wise men disagree?”

Burke put his faith in the wisdom and institutions of the past, and warned that ignoring past lessons would cause many problems. He felt that too much faith in man’s reason alone would lead to party conflicts, waste and many failed government projects.

Paine was more concerned that dogmatic attachment to outdated traditions would keep society from progressing.

Modern Americans — liberal and conservative — nearly all want to make changes and see things improve. The interesting thing is that most network liberals and fiscal conservatives are followers of Burke while the majority of cluster liberals support Paine’s view.

This is further confused because many social conservatives are a mixed bag — they adopt Burke on issues like abortion and family values and Paine on issues from immigration to Iraq and Afghanistan.

Sides Versus Fusion

Confused yet? Many people are. But this is more than just an indication of how much the American political landscape has changed since 1989. Independents, the true majority now, are fans of both Burke and Paine.

They believe in keeping the best of the past and also in making commonsense changes when needed.

As long as independents are the majority (and it appears this will be for a long time), the future of conservatism is liberal (meaning a constant push for change in Washington) and the future of liberalism is controlled by independents.

The far left and right can shout as loudly as they want, but the future of America belongs to those who believe in the best of the past (like the U.S. Constitution) and making changes to improve society in each generation. Like it or hate it, this is the reality now.

In a sense, though, this is a return to the American way. George Washington embodied both views: Burke and Paine, attachment to the old lessons and changes to improve things.

After Washington, electors traded back and forth between presidents who emphasized Burke’s views and those who preferred Paine’s ideals. The modern two-party system consistently pits these two worldviews against each other.

Third Party Versus No Party

It remains to be seen what a return to the combination of both views by a majority of the populace — the independents — will bring. Many wonder if a third party is ahead.

But, perhaps, the rise of independents will resurrect support for another model popular in the founding era: A non-party federal government where independent voters elect the best people to office without the circus of political parties.

For those who say this can’t happen, remember how small and impotent independents were just three decades ago. The one constant in political history is change, and the one thing we can count on for sure is that many things will occur which the experts have deemed impossible.

Santayana said that unless we learn from the mistakes of history we are doomed to repeat them, and both Paine and Burke knew that difficult things are possible. America was built on the belief that hard advances are, in fact, likely.

On a technical level, a true third party could create the same thing as a no-party model — at least in presidential politics.

Since the president must be elected by a majority (e.g. 51 percent), not just a plurality (say the highest vote, but only 42 percent) of the electoral college, having three truly popular party candidates (all with their own electoral college representatives) would usually put elections in the hands of independent voters.

At some point, independents may decide that being forced to choose between the two big parties just isn’t getting the job done.

In the meantime, independent support is there for the taking by any president who is willing to re-emphasize the Constitution, fiscal responsibility, social justice and other best lessons of the past along with exerting the leadership to do big things that require change and deeply matter.

America is greatly in need of a truly shared and great purpose, and citizens of all major viewpoints will naturally rally to such leadership when/if it comes.

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Oliver DeMille is a co-founder of the Center for Social Leadership, and a co-creator of Thomas Jefferson Education.

He is the co-author of the New York Times, Wall Street Journal and USA Today bestseller LeaderShift, and author of A Thomas Jefferson Education: Teaching a Generation of Leaders for the 21st Century, and The Coming Aristocracy: Education & the Future of Freedom.

Oliver is dedicated to promoting freedom through leadership education. He and his wife Rachel are raising their eight children in Cedar City, Utah.

Category : Constitution &Current Events &Government &History &Politics

Redcoats to the Rescue!

January 12th, 2011 // 11:06 am @ Oliver DeMille

Republicans and Democrats have increased government spending for years. Bush’s budget was drastically higher than Clinton’s, and President Obama has continued increasing spending.

The White House blames the Bush Administration for the economic meltdown it inherited, and rightly so.

But now independents, conservatives and many working-class Americans have reached a point where they feel frustrated that the Obama Administration has not fixed the economy — indeed, many feel that a number of programs have made things worse.

Big corporations have significant cash reserves right now, but they are unwilling to spend it with the Obama Administration’s general dislike of business. Capital goes where it is treated well, and right now that’s not the United States.

In fact, many businessmen are concerned that things will get worse before they get better, that the government will continue to make war on business, increase regulation, buy up and control more of the economy, and generally harass free enterprise.

Many believe we will see a return of recession in the next few quarters, and even if we achieve double the economic growth of the 1990s (which is obviously unlikely) it would take us over two years to get back to normal levels of unemployment.

With Moody’s report on August 21, 2010 that jobless claims are rising, “the economy is weakening,” “the rate of growth is slowing” again, and “unemployment is going to rise higher,” this is even more important.

Yet Washington is increasing regulation on business, making investment and entrepreneurial ventures more difficult, and sending the message that business is not really welcome anymore in the United States.

We need a major economic boost in the worst way, and instead our leaders are showing aversion and at times even loathing for the entrepreneurial spirit that grows any free economy. What are we thinking?

The British Way

More to the point, where is the national leader that will reboot the economy? The answer is: in England.

If that’s surprising, consider the evidence. The new British government, led by David Cameron, is taking drastic action to fix Britain’s economy. This path is difficult, but it is based on the reality of the new world economy. Americans should pay close attention.

Specifically, the new English budget balances the government’s books, shrinks most government departments by a quarter, and brings down programs and costs in schools, health-care services, welfare and many other areas of spending.

The government is “handing power to parents to run the schools,” putting doctors in charge of health care, and attempting to change “a culture in which Britons have looked to government for services and answers they could provide themselves.”

The Obama and Cameron administrations both inherited a major economic mess, but they are responding in nearly opposite ways.

So here we are in 2010 with a striking scenario: Washington is drastically increasing government spending and regulating at levels that would probably impress Marx and certainly Keynes, while Britain is reducing government and incentivizing free enterprise in ways reminiscent of Hayek or Milton Friedman!

It’s the “world turned upside down” (a song played at the end of the Revolutionary War when the British found out their invincible empire had given in to the American rebels).

President Obama and his team deserve credit for making GM profitable again and for moving forward plans to sell it back to the private market. And they are making similar progress with Chrysler.

Additional burdensome regulations and taxes on business are still being proposed, however. One recent political cartoon shows President Obama standing near a dying man named “Economic Recovery” saying, “The bloodletting didn’t work. Maybe we should try some leeches.”

For many in the business community, (whether or not it’s true) the White House appears more of an enemy than a friend. The British leaders at least seem to be on the side of trying to help those who run businesses rebound and succeed.

Enterprise Needed

Of course, it remains to be seen if a nation with as much government intervention in the economy as Britain can make it work, but certainly any good news for business and enterprise is positive for the world economy.

In addition to Britain, nations including Canada, Israel, India, Brazil and even China are doing more than before to actively incentivize entrepreneurs, investors and small business.

The U.S. should take notes: Government overspending and a campaign of alienating investors and small business isn’t really the best way to boost the economy or overcome massive unemployment.

At some point, the United States will either choose to reemphasize its powerful free-enterprise roots or it will decline in world power, freedom and prosperity. Perhaps now, with the British trying to lead the way, is the right time.

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Oliver DeMille is a co-founder of the Center for Social Leadership, and a co-creator of Thomas Jefferson Education.

Oliver is dedicated to promoting freedom through leadership education. He and his wife Rachel are raising their eight children in Cedar City, Utah.

Category : Current Events &Economics &Featured &Government &Liberty &Politics

Building With Kryptonite: Small Business “Bailout” and the Future of the American Economy

January 3rd, 2011 // 4:00 am @ Oliver DeMille

When recessions make things difficult for a lot of people across the nation — especially when accompanied by high unemployment — many turn against markets and seek government solutions to economic challenges.

This is both predictable and understandable.

But one group typically responds in a different way that is surprising to most modern Americans: Many small business leaders and entrepreneurs, instead of seeking government bailouts, turn instead to ingenuity, innovation and flexibility.

Small business people believe in the free market. They believe that when things change in the economy they need to change the way they are doing business to deal with the new realities.

They also believe in free enterprise: the idea that their work, resourcefulness and risk can turn any challenge into a positive.

As one report pointed out, General Electric, Hewlett and Packard, Microsoft and CNN all started (or were brand new and really got going) during recessions.

Small business people have gotten us out of nearly all modern recessions — not by waiting for others to fix things or turning to government, but rather by applying leadership, inventiveness, creativity and originality. They look around, assess the situation and the needs, and put themselves (and others) to work.

Those with little experience running businesses, establishing start-ups or meeting payrolls often think that what small business needs is easier financing terms, government credits or bonuses.

The truth is that what they really need is less government regulation to deal with and lower taxes on their profits (which makes the risk worth the effort).

So why did the Bush and Obama administrations try to boost small businesses by making credit more available but increasing regulations and (in the Obama era) seeking to raise taxes?

“Thanks,” many small businesspeople are saying, “but no thanks. Forget the government credits and loan programs, and just get rid of all the bureaucratic red tape and high taxes which make it hard to build businesses, hire employees and meet our payroll.”

The Problem With Washington

Small businesses need consumers to buy their products, and that means stability from the government — not an on-going agenda of governmental change, change, and more change that creates increasing uncertainty and kills investment and consumer confidence.

They also need investment. As Nobel Laureate in economics Joseph Stiglitz said, there is a lot of investment money globally right now, but as investors are asking where is the best place to invest, the primary answer is “not in the United States.”

The on-going stimulus programs and other over-use of government interventions in the U.S. economy are driving away capital.

Experts say the housing crash hasn’t hit bottom yet and the unemployment rate will increase. The real unemployment rate is actually over 12 percent.

Government intervention is not solving the problems, and in fact the governments around the world that are intervening the most in their economies are struggling more.

It may be argued that these countries obviously have a greater need for remediation; but it must also be acknowledged that government has been the go-to in the U.S., and its sound-bite friendly solutions have been conspicuously shy of either restraint or principle.

When the crisis hit, most experts agree that government intervention helped stabilize falling markets. We are all glad things didn’t get even worse.

Thank goodness for President Obama’s leadership aura at the end of 2008 and the first few months of 2009. We may well have been headed for a depression but for the positive sense of leadership he brought to the nation. It was short lived, it is true, but it helped when we needed it.

The McCain team at that point simply did not have the national support to lead us through that challenge. We needed a president-elect and new president with “the leadership thing,” and Obama had it. I think this is why so many independents supported the Obama campaign in 2008 election.

Now, however, we have now reached a point where, as Treasury Secretary Timothy Geitner said, we need business to lead out in healing our economy.

The best thing government can do now is get out of the way and let small businesses innovate, hire and grow. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to happen unless Washington stops increasing regulations, taxes and other blocks to business growth.

The recent growth of government spending has been drastic, and it creates a drag on growth in the private sector.

For example, Reagan increased government spending by 2.6 percent, the first Bush by 1.8 percent, and Clinton by 1.5 percent.

But since 2000 we have increased spending with Bush at 4.7 percent and the Obama Administration at a whopping 12.7 percent (actually 22.5 percent if you include money approved under Bush but spent under Obama!).

In 2006 and 2008 independent voters swept Republicans out of office as a response to high government spending and a loss of trust in the decisions of the White House. Republican leaders now concede that they “got fired” by independents largely because of overspending.

Now independents are deeply frustrated that Democratic leaders have spent even more. Not surprisingly, given the unpopularity among independents and moderates of massive government spending, Americans now rate Barack Obama and George Bush almost equally — a major change from one year earlier where Obama had a 23 percent lead over Bush.

Only 20 percent of Americans are now pleased with Washington; 80 percent of Americans are disappointed or upset with Washington. Time magazine recently ran a cover report on conversations with Americans across the country.

The reporter Joe Klein noted that “There was a unanimous sense that Washington was broken beyond repair.”

This is not surprising in a nation where every baby born today “owes” the federal government over $43,000 to pay off the debt. For the first time in generations, many [some would say most] Americans are concerned that their children will inherit a worse nation and economy than they did.

The Solution Class

With all this government spending and constantly increasing regulations on business, it wouldn’t be surprising to see entrepreneurs and small business simply giving up; no doubt many do.

Most big venture capital is going abroad to places like Brazil, Israel, India, Britain, etc. All of these places are cutting government spending in order to incentivize small business growth.

Even France, Germany and Sweden are following this strategy. Indeed, France’s financial minister said on October 10, 2010 that unless nations reduce public deficits through reduced government spending, consumers will buy less and producers will produce less.

Nations, including France, who are following this policy are now seeing unemployment rates decrease. And when such a central-control powerhouse as France has an admonishment for us on this point, we ought to take notice.

At the same time that our growth money is going abroad, the U.S. government is increasing its debt to other nations.

For example, China holds 11 percent of our Treasury debt, Japan 9.5 percent, OPEC nations 3.5 percent, Brazil 2 percent, Russia 1.4 percent, there are significant holdings by North American and European lenders, and domestic lenders carry about 52 percent of the government’s debt.

Imagine what would happen to our economy if the government defaulted — and it does happen. In fact, the cost to insure our debt against default has risen 30 percent since August — just two months ago.

In short, the government owes too much to too many, but instead of incentivizing business growth in America it is attacking the very ones who are trying to fix things — small business.

Still, the American entrepreneurial class is fighting to overcome any and all challenges — even those posed by their own government.

Ken Kurson wrote:

“Today’s brutal economy and credit freeze should have most entrepreneurs running for cover, or at last signing up for the 99 weeks of unemployment our Congress has generously provided, courtesy of our kids and grandkids. Instead, many steel-stomached small business people are using this crisis as an opportunity to expand.”

In order to overcome the downturn and slow growth, entrepreneurs are asking what will sell in this economy and going to work providing it.

If past business strategies won’t work in the new reality, they are changing their businesses and seeking what actually will succeed. They see the economic meltdown and its aftermath as an opportunity, not a crisis. Instead of whining about what they’ve lost or asking for more government help, they are tightening their belts and getting to work.

Our New Super Heroes?

But, amazingly, Washington seems determined to make it harder for the very small businesspeople who are most effectively taking on our national economic problems.

Government is rewarding those who are currently the least productive while making it more difficult for those who are actively fixing the problems.

Democrats want to raise taxes in order to avoid cutting hyper-regulatory government problems (and because regulating business is popular in this anti-Wall Street environment), while the Republicans are allowing the tax hikes in the name of facing off with the Democrats.

Democrats claim that only by raising taxes on the top 2 percent of earners can we balance budgets. But “…75 percent of the families that would be affected by this tax hike are making between $250,000 and $500,000 a year…A lot of these people are small business owners, and that would hurt job creation.”

By increasing taxes on the very group that creates nearly all growth in America — small business owners — we guarantee that unemployment will tend to rise. And as the two major parties fight in Washington, taxes are now set to increase for everyone.

Some say that a tax increase is required to pay down debts and balance budgets, but in a down economy the real solution is to leave taxes as they are and cut unnecessary government spending. Neither party seems willing to do this, despite paying lots of lip service to the idea.

And month after month, increased regulations from Washington make business growth, hiring and increased economic success more difficult for small businesses.

In the parlance of the Comic-Con generation, it’s like the government trying to shut down Superman when he is protecting us from the end of the world. It makes absolutely no sense.

This is the crisis! Difficulty getting credit, slow growth, high unemployment, low consumer confidence—these are challenges entrepreneurs can overcome with hard work, smart risk and tenacious teamwork. This is precisely what entrepreneurs do!

But in addition to these major difficulties, Washington is now requiring small businesspeople to fight the government too! Why? In what evil parallel universe does building with kryptonite make any sense?

It’s time for a true small business bailout — a drastic reduction in costly red tape and an easing up on the tax rates for those who pull success out of seemingly impossible circumstances.

We need Superman, and entrepreneurs are up to the task. If only the two major parties in Washington would get out of the way.

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Oliver DeMille is a co-founder of the Center for Social Leadership, and a co-creator of Thomas Jefferson Education.

Oliver is dedicated to promoting freedom through leadership education. He and his wife Rachel are raising their eight children in Cedar City, Utah.

Category : Culture &Current Events &Economics &Entrepreneurship &Featured &Government &Leadership &Politics

The Age of Overseers: Technology, Politics, & the Future

December 27th, 2010 // 4:00 am @ Oliver DeMille

The rise of independents in American politics is a major trend that has drastically changed the political landscape.

But why is it happening now? Are both major parties so bad now — indeed so much worse than they have ever been — that the majority of involved citizens just can’t stand them anymore?

Actually, the parties have always had their struggles, and many people have wanted alternatives over the years.

But something is different now. Technology has drastically altered the way people interact with and through media, and this has made all the difference.

The views of independents are far from monolithic; independents include people from many political perspectives.

It’s interesting to wonder how many voters would have been independents over the decades if they had enjoyed the technology we do today.

Perhaps we can gain a little insight by understanding some of the major competing political perspectives. Though the party system tended to divide people into Democrats and Republicans, the reality was much more byzantine.

There are at least nine major historical types of conservatives and 11 types of liberals, though most of these were either Democrats or Republicans during the modern era of politics since 1945.

Understanding a little about each of these makes it clear that there have been many American citizens with independent leanings for a long time.

Twenty Parties?

Every American will likely see the world differently upon realizing the diversity of American political thought that has helped shape our current political landscape. Just consider the following liberal views:

Hobbesian Liberals have promoted a centralized world government for several centuries, and have used national policy to move toward this goal.
Lockeian Liberals continually promote the philosophy that the old system obviously hasn’t worked, so we need to keep trying something new. Until we get a truly ideal society, without major problems, we need to keep seeking new answers.
Rousseauian Liberals mistrust the power of the state, church and big business (the aristocracy), and emphasize the need to keep an eye on anyone in power and keep them in check.
Benthian Liberals believe the primary purpose of government is to help the poor, and anything else is a distraction.
Marxian Liberals see the state, church and business as the enemies of the masses, and want a party (vanguard) which truly stands for the people and uses its power to keep the “haves” from hurting (and withholding prosperity from) the “have-nots.”
Keynesian Liberals want to use the state and big business together to help the poor.
Social Liberals are deeply concerned with maintaining personal freedoms, especially the rights to choose one’s own personal morals — free from enforced societal or institutional dogmas and traditions.
Fiscal Liberals believe in using government to redistribute wealth to care for all social needs.
Civil Libertarians want government to aggressively protect everyone’s civil rights.
Single-Issue Liberals support a given issue (such as feminism, environmentalism, minority rights, etc.) that has traditionally been supported by liberal politicians and officials.
Blue Collar Liberals 1.) believe in the U.S. Constitution and the rights and freedoms it guarantees, 2.) want government to provide effective national defense and good schools, 3.) resent the centralization of power in Washington, 4.) are against communism (1947-2001)/terrorism (after 2001), 5.) believe in private property, equality before the law, the importance of family, and 6.) want fairness and common-sense solutions to problems.

Now, compare various types of conservative perspectives:

Machiavellian Conservatives care about power, want to win and want to always stay in power.
Puritanical Conservatives seek to use government power to regulate and enforce a strict moral code (the various factions passionately disagree about the specifics of such a code).
Southern Conservatives strongly emphasize states’ rights and the need to return to an agrarian rather than industrial society. (Of course, there are “southerners who are conservatives” but not part of this philosophy.)
Humane Conservatives believe in breaking society into units small enough that everyone knows each other, and making this the basic level of government. Sometimes these are known as “Humane Liberals.”
Social Conservatives argue that morals are more important than armies and laws, and that given America’s current moral decay we can expect major national decline unless we (voluntarily, as a people) change our behaviors.
Fiscal Conservatives promote balanced budgets, a minimum of debt, only spending what you have, and limiting government to its basic roles in order to leave more money in the free market.
Neo-Conservatives promote strong national security through robust American leadership (critics call it intervention) in the international arena.
Compassionate Conservatives believe in limited government and that one of the basic roles of government is aiding those in need.
Popular Conservatives believe in the same 6 points as Blue Collar Liberals (see above).

There are, of course, other views, including anti-government libertarians on the far right who want no government at all or at least a very limited government, and Rousseauian Unionists on the radical left who suggest using labor unions to fight government, business, church and all other powerful institutions at the same time.

But these 20 views are the major perspectives which have influenced modern American politics.

Melting Pots

At first blush, it might seem that independents would naturally represent some of the minor groups on the list, but this isn’t usually the case. Most independents agree with ideas from several, or many, of these 20 viewpoints, and also disagree with a lot of these ideas.

For example, I personally agree with the following:

Big institutions should be closely watched by citizens and kept in check;
Dogmatic religious traditions should not be forced upon citizens by government;
Government should not curtail the right of individuals to believe and worship as they choose;
Positive contributions from religion and morality are a great benefit to society;
Government should help the poor and needy — but almost solely at local levels where voluntarism and private-public community solutions can take common-sense action;
The protection of individual rights should be closely guarded and maintained;
Minorities and women should have equal rights with all citizens and special rules should ensure this where such rights have been curtailed in the past;
We should take care of the environment in a smart and commonsensical way with proper action from both government and business;
We should more closely follow the 10th Amendment and return more power to the states;
Morals greatly matter to national success;
We should balance our budget and spend only within our means;
The federal government should do better what it is designed to do under the Constitution (especially national defense) and leave the rest to the states and private citizens and markets;
We should all voluntarily do more to help the needy and improve the welfare in our communities. (Of course, the specific details would depend on the situation. Nuance is everything in politics, governance and policy.)

In short, I’m an independent. Of course, many independents would construct this list differently, which is why so many of us prefer to be independents. But we do share some major views.

Specifically, the six points held in common by blue-collar liberals and popular conservatives are accepted by many independents. Again, these six values are:

Belief in the U.S. Constitution and the rights and freedoms it guarantees;
Want the government to provide effective national defense and good schools;
Resent the centralizing of power in Washington;
Against communism/terrorism;
Belief in private property, equality before the law, and the importance of family;
Want fairness and common-sense solutions to problems;

It seems obvious to me that many Americans have held independent views like these for a very long time.

As long as our political news only came through a few big media outlets and our political choices were limited to those supported by two parties, people from many political views found themselves forced to work within one of the parties or have no influence in the political process.

Today, given the explosion of news outlets at the same time as the proliferation of the Internet, individuals are able to gather information from various sources and then make their viewpoints heard. It is a new world for freedom, and the growth of independents may just be the start of the trend.

Indeed, the prime directive of future dictators may well need to be to censor, regulate or shut down the Internet within their nation.

Surveillance State or Wise Citizens?

The danger is that many of today’s citizens will only interact with people who agree with them on almost everything. This is a serious and persistent problem.

Still, independents are leading in fighting this trend — searching out ideas, concepts and proposals from many sources and passing them on with comments, concerns and ideas for improvement.

This is an exciting development in American, and world, politics. And it has the potential to become a major movement toward freedom.

In all of history, real freedom only occurs where the general citizenry takes its role as overseers of government seriously.

In the era of books and newspapers, such citizen-statesmanship was the norm in America. Then came the television age, where the general citizenry tuned in to “experts” who told them much of what they thought about. Not surprisingly, this coincided with the rise of the secretive, massive and bureaucratic government.

Today we are at a crossroads. The technology is available for two great options: The massive surveillance state, or the renewed freedom of a deeply-involved citizenry thinking independently and holding the government to the highest standards.

We are entering “the Age of Overseers,” but it is still unclear who the overseers will be.

Either we will be overseen by a technologically-advanced “big brother” government with capabilities well beyond the wildest imaginations of Orwell or Huxley, or we will become a nation of people who oversee the government at the levels envisioned and initiated by the founding fathers.

Either way, technology has raised the stakes.

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Oliver DeMille is a co-founder of the Center for Social Leadership, and a co-creator of Thomas Jefferson Education.

Oliver is dedicated to promoting freedom through leadership education. He and his wife Rachel are raising their eight children in Cedar City, Utah.

Category : Constitution &Current Events &Government &History &Liberty &Politics &Statesmanship

The Big Crisis is Coming

December 2nd, 2010 // 4:00 am @ Oliver DeMille

Note: If you like this article, you’ll love Oliver’s latest book, FreedomShift: 3 Choices to Reclaim America’s Destiny, which addresses the future of American and what to do about it.

Click Here to Download a PDF of This Article

By 2020, the U.S. will be spending $1 trillion a year just to pay the interest on the national debt. Sometime between now and then the catastrophe will come. It will come with amazing swiftness.” -David Brooks, New York Times Columnist

A big crisis is coming. From the story of the boy who cried, “Wolf!” to the crime of calling “Fire!” in a crowded theater, our society has a pretty low tolerance for alarmists.

They’re irresponsible, sensational, not to be believed.

One sure way to be ejected from the “Inner Ring” is to promote theories of conspiracy, to predict disaster or to in any other way suggest that our Progressivist trajectory is gravely off-course.

But what about when there is a wolf? Well, sure; the idea that there really is a wolf has agitated the fevered minds of crackpots and fringies since–forever.

And their animated efforts to alert the world to the threats that supposedly imperil us, to “wake us up” (regardless of our disinterest or our criticism) is perhaps the best indication that there’s no merit in their warning–or so says popular opinion.

This makes it all the more curious, awkward and, dare we say, disturbing when a chorus of alarms is heard coming from the established intelligentsia, from the acknowledged “experts” and thought leaders–the most credible voices in The Great Conversation.

And this is exactly what is taking place right now.

History is, of course, full of cranks and doomsayers, and the wise learn to talk in moderated tones and look at the evidence with clinical objectivity.

And yet in our time even many of our most objective, credible, detached, understated, methodical and consistently rational thinkers are predicting significant difficulties ahead–often in dramatic and even sensational terms.

Twenty Quotes Every American Should Read Today

For example, consider the following thoughts from some of our most tempered and prudent authorities. I have arranged these in a Top 20 list of great quotes; all 20 are an important commentary on our modern world and the decade ahead.

1. Peggy Noonan, The Wall Street Journal

I think there is an unspoken subtext in our national political culture right now. In fact I think it’s a subtext to our society. I think that a lot of people are carrying around in their heads, unarticulated and even in some cases unnoticed, a sense that the wheels are coming off the trolley and the trolley off the tracks.”

2. William Strauss & Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning

Wherever we’re headed, America is evolving in ways most of us don’t like or understand. Individually focused yet collectively adrift, we wonder if we’re headed toward a waterfall . . . a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one.”

3. David Brooks, The New York Times

Elections come and go, but the United States is still careening toward bankruptcy. By 2020, the U.S. will be spending $1 trillion a year just to pay the interest on the national debt. Sometime between now and then the catastrophe will come. It will come with amazing swiftness. The bond markets are with you until the second they are against you. When the psychology shifts and the fiscal crisis happens, the shock will be grievous: national humiliation, diminished power in the world, drastic cuts and spreading pain.”

4. Niall Ferguson, Newsweek

This is how empires decline. It begins with a debt explosion.”

5. Roger C. Altman & Richard N. Haas, Foreign Affairs

The U.S. government is incurring debt at a historically unprecedented and ultimately unsustainable rate… As the world’s biggest borrower and the issuer of the world’s reserve currency, the United States will not be allowed to spend ten years leveraging itself to these unprecedented levels. If U.S. leaders do not act to curb this debt addiction, then the global capital markets will do so for them, forcing a sharp and punitive adjustment in fiscal policy. The result will be an age of American austerity. No category of federal spending will be spared, including entitlements and defense. Taxes on individuals and businesses will be raised. Economic growth, both in the United States and around the world, will suffer. There will be profound consequences, not just for Americans’ standard of living but also for U.S. foreign policy and the coming era of international relations.”

6. Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Foreign Affairs

The Congressional Budget Office calculates that total government debt will reach 100 percent of GDP by 2023…”

7. Roger C. Altman & Richard N. Haas, Foreign Affairs

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff paper comes closer to the mark by projecting that federal debt could equal total GDP as soon as 2015. These levels approximate the relative indebtedness of Greece and Italy today. Leaving aside the period during and immediately after World War II, the United States has not been so indebted since recordkeeping began, in 1792… State and local governments also owe huge amounts, on the order of $3 trillion.”

8. Don Peck, The Atlantic

The Great Recession may be over, but this era of high joblessness is probably just beginning. Before it ends, it will likely change the life course and character of a generation of young adults… It could cripple marriage as an institution in many communities… Ultimately, it is likely to warp our politics, our culture and the character of our society for years come…The economy now sits in a hole 10 million jobs deep…[and] we need to produce roughly 1.5 million jobs a year–about 125,000 a month–just to keep from sinking deeper. Even if the economy were to immediately begin producing 600,000 jobs a month–more than double the pace of the mid-to-late 1990s, when job growth was strong–it would take roughly two years to dig ourselves out of the hole we’re in… But the U.S. hasn’t seen that pace of sustained employment growth in more than 30 years…”

9. Ken Wilber, A Theory of Everything

We are awaiting the new global founding Fathers and Mothers who will frame an integral system of governance that will call us to our more encompassing future . . .”

10. Andreas Kluth, The Economist

And yet, who would be California’s ‘Founding Fathers’? Thomas Jefferson, absent from Philadelphia as a minister to France, called the 55 delegates chosen by the states ‘demi-gods’. These were men such as James Madison, deeply versed in Aristotle, Cicero, Locke and Montesquieu, who preferred the word ‘republic’ to ‘democracy’ for fear that the latter might evoke the chaos of ancient Athens… But can lay people be expected to assume the responsibilities of a Madison?”

11. Thomas Friedman, The New York Times

We are in a country in debt and in decline–not terminal, not irreversible, but in decline. Our political systems seem incapable of producing long-range answers to big problems or big opportunities.”

12. Larry King, Larry King Live

A recent CNN Opinion Research Poll [asked]: ‘Do you think the federal government has become so large and powerful that it poses a threat to the rights and freedoms of ordinary people?’ Fifty-six percent of Americans said yes.”

13. Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Foreign Affairs

In 2010, a poll by the Pew Research Center found that 61 percent of respondents thought the United States was in decline, and only 19 percent trusted the government to do what is right most of the time. In 1964, by contrast, three-quarters of the American public said they trusted the federal government to do the right thing most of the time.”

14. David Brooks, The New York Times

The essence of America is energy–the vibrancy of the market, the mobility of the people and the disruptive creativity of the entrepreneurs. This vibrancy grew up accidentally, out of a cocktail of religious fervor and material abundance, but it was nurtured by choice. It was nurtured by our founders, who created national capital markets to disrupt the ossifying grip of the agricultural landholders. It was nurtured by 19th-century Republicans to build the railroads and the land-grant colleges to weave free markets across great distances. It was nurtured by Progressives who broke the stultifying grip of the trusts…The task ahead is to save this country from stagnation and fiscal ruin. We know what it will take…The Democratic Party…does not seem to be up to that coming challenge (neither is the Republican Party).”

15. Fareed Zakaria, Newsweek

The world has shifted from anti-Americanism to post-Americanism . . . The distribution of power is shifting, moving away from American dominance.”

16. Philip Bobbitt, The Shield of Achilles

We are entering a period, however, when very small numbers of persons, operating with the enormous power of modern computers, biogenetics, air transport, and even small nuclear weapons, can deal lethal blows to any society. Because the origin of these attacks can be effectively disguised, the fundamental bases of the State will change . . . We are entering a fearful time, a time that will call on all our resources, moral as well as intellectual and material.”

17. Thomas Friedman, The New York Times

I heard a phrase being bandied around here by non-Americans–about the United States–that I can honestly say I’ve never heard before: ‘political instability.’ [This] was a phrase normally reserved for countries like Russia or Iran or Honduras. But now, an American businessman remarked to me, ‘people ask me about political instability in the U.S. We’ve become unpredictable to the world’….We’re making people nervous.”

18. Joe Klein, Time

Many Americans also were confused and frustrated by the constant state of war since the terrorist attacks of 9/11. But for every occasion they raised Afghanistan, they mentioned China 25 times…’The great fear is about American supremacy,’ said Anne Mariucci…’We all believed that if you followed the basic compact, worked hard and played by the rules, that we’d have the highest standard of living in the world. And we were always on the front edge of the next new technology–but we’re not anymore. We seem to be mired in mediocrity while China is steaming ahead.'”

19. Ken Kurson, Esquire

Today’s brutal economy and credit freeze should have most entrepreneurs running for cover, or at last signing up for the 99 weeks of unemployment our Congress has generously provided, courtesy of our kids and grandkids. Instead, many steel-stomached small business people are using this crisis as an opportunity to expand.”

20. Alvin Toffler, The Third Wave

There are powerful reasons for long-rang optimism, even if the transitional years immediately ahead are likely to be stormy and crisis ridden.”

One More Thing: The Rise of China

On the issue of China, Peggy Noonan said in The Wall Street Journal:

People are freshly aware of the real-world implications of a $1.6 trillion deficit, of a $14 trillion debt. It will rob American of its economic power, and eventually even of its ability to defend itself. Militaries cost money. And if other countries own our debt, don’t they in some new way own us? If China holds enough of your paper, does it also own some of your foreign policy? Do we want to find out?”

Also consider these quotes from my book FreedomShift:

Note that China, the second largest economy in the world, has huge savings (unlike the former Soviet Union or the current United States) and is a major buyer of U.S. debt. China has three of the world’s four largest banks, the two largest insurance companies and the second largest stock market. With all this, the Communist Party remains in control; it also remains firmly communistic in philosophy and is, if possible, increasingly totalitarian.”

China has a huge surplus of government and also private savings, and it wants to invest in the United States. Indeed it is our largest creditor now. Other nations may also be persuaded to keep supporting our spending habits. But one has to wonder why our philosophical opponent (communist China) wants to invest so much. Are its motives pure? What if they’re not? Is it a simple profit motive? What if it’s something more?”

And as Thomas Friedman said in the New York Times:

What does it mean when China’s communist business environment is more inviting to U.S. companies, more conducive to their growth, than the United States? When the regulations and taxes in the U.S. make doing business in China attractive? The U.S. now ranks #40 out of forty industrialized nations in appeal to business.”

As noted by Samuel P. Huntington and summarized by Richard K. Betts in Foreign Affairs:

Huntington also presents data showing China as the only major power that has been more violent than Muslim states.”

Columnist for The Atlantic (and 30-year expert living in Asia) James Fallows has argued that America can find ways to work with China so the 21st Century doesn’t become a time of big-power conflict, but few if any experts believe that the U.S. can ultimately keep competing with China unless we make major improvements at home.

It’s Coming

A big crisis is coming, and we need to prepare. I am an optimist, and I am convinced that the best years in America and the world are ahead of us.

I am also an idealist: I believe that we should clarify what we want for the world’s future and get to work creating it–however difficult the task.

As a realist I am convinced that unless certain things change very quickly (and perhaps no matter what we do) we are facing some major challenges ahead. Every generation faces its share of problems and gets to choose whether to be beaten down by them or to turn them into opportunities.

All of this said, my optimism still wins out. Our best is yet to come. And it will almost surely come as we face and overcome the major challenges ahead.

What are these challenges? I have no crystal ball, and my only certainty is that they will surely come–and probably very soon.

Many nations have been at a point with conditions similar to those we now face, and there is a preponderance of historical evidence that certain kinds of problems dominate in such circumstances.

The cycles and patterns of history indicate four major types of challenges for our situation.

Four Possible Catastrophes

Four possible catastrophes are suggested by historical analysis. Of course, any foray into prediction is based on educated guesses, and the one sure bet is that the future will present a number of surprises.

Along with the inevitable shocks that will no doubt disturb all forecasts, one or more of these great challenges is likely to come again soon.

These scenarios are a good indication of what we should expect during the next decade:

1. Major Economic Problems

The Great Recession does not qualify as a major economic collapse, though nearly all the experts are convinced that it came very close to becoming one. An economic depression of considerably greater magnitude may be ahead.

2. Health Pandemic

Modern nations are extremely concerned about this terrifying possibility. It is a telling foreshadow that insurance companies are taking this threat very seriously and preparing accordingly. Historically, the Black Plague was as devastating as any war–more than most; indeed, it reportedly killed a third of the population in many parts of Europe.

3. An Unexpected Major Crisis

Examples might include a major volcanic event, earthquakes, meteors, drastic environmental shifts or other so-called “acts of God.”

Of course, the unexpected can come at any point in the historical cycles, but in times like ours these randomly occurring disasters are especially devastating because coinciding with one or more of the other three challenges is so likely. In the age of WMDs, such catastrophes could be manmade–in all of history, there is no credible example of weapons being created and remaining unused.

4. Major War that Threatens the Homeland

The experts seem to think that few enemies in the world have the potential to challenge America in this way, but even if this is true the reality is that any of the other major crises would most likely be quickly followed by major warfare.

Things can change very quickly, as history has proven. We are at the point in history (following a major boom in the 90s and then 9/11, the longest war in U.S. history and the Great Recession crash) that we are weary of crisis.

We want the challenges to be over, and we are thus particularly vulnerable. It is at such points that the really big problems come–like Pearl Harbor after a roaring twenties boom ended by the stock market crash in 1929 and then twelve long years of crushing depression.

Turning Crisis to Opportunity

We’ve gotten a little soft after several generations of prosperity and entitlement. It’s time for us to cheer up, man up and turn our coming challenges into opportunities.

America’s biggest successes came in times of challenge: the Constitution came out of a time of war and economic downturn, slavery was ended in another era of war and economic depression, and the Greatest Generation stopped Hitler in a period of world war following the Great Depression.

The patterns of history suggest, and the intelligentsia from across the globe concur, that we are headed for another such time period; in fact, we may well be into it already.

The challenges won’t be identical, of course, but they will likely be similar. Realism says our generation will have as many challenges as any other, and optimism says we can turn the coming challenges into remaking America and the world in the best and most important ways.

Whether we succumb to the challenges ahead or turn them into America’s best years depends on the American people.

If we stand back and wait for our leaders to solve our problems, the crises ahead will almost certainly go very badly for America.

If we just pretend everything is fine (or that our leaders will fix everything without our help) until the crisis is fully upon us, we miss valuable preparation time.

If, on the other hand, we resurrect our identity as a nation of grassroots leaders, entrepreneurial thinkers and citizen-statesmen, we will use the coming difficulties to significantly improve the world we pass on to posterity.

Well, Chicken Little–it turns out that the sky is falling. Will we be prepared?

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