November 2nd, 2016 // 6:58 am @ Oliver DeMille
Washington’s Current Slump
(And the Solution)
Growing or Shrinking?
To pay for the national debt, including the unfunded mandates and entitlements ahead, “Uncle Sam needs more than $429,108.73 per person.”[i] To figure out how this directly impacts you, just write down how much you make a year—and multiply it by the number of years you plan to keep working. (Not a perfectly precise approach, but it will get us in the ballpark.) Then multiply $429,108 by the number of people in your family. Find the difference between the two numbers, and that’s how taxes will impact you in the years ahead.
For many Americans, the taxes in this reality are higher than the total amount of money they’ll make. Which is why politicians want to take most of it from the rich. But when they do, the wealthy find ways to move their businesses and savings abroad or into other financial vehicles—hurting jobs, investment, and making the economic struggles of average Americans even more difficult.
However we slice this, it’s a massive problem. It is already hurting almost all Americans (as seen in the Great Recession beginning in 2008, and growing ever since). Government stimulus, printing of inflationary money, and low gas prices have dampened how deeply we feel this problem right now—but these aren’t going to last forever. At some point the bubble will burst, and the economy is in for a tough time. All of us will be directly impacted.
But Washington hardly seems to notice. During elections most candidates promise real change, but it seldom materializes, at least not in positive ways. In fact, since 2008 we’ve seen a stubbornly sluggish economy. Washington puts out positive statistics each month, but most people aren’t feeling any kind of economic boom. And 90 days later Washington revises its past statistics—they are routinely much worse than originally announced.
Yet for some reason, the initial positive announcements make big headlines, while the revisions are usually buried in fine print. It’s almost as if the mainstream media is trying very hard to make the current Administration look as good as possible, and sway the election in their favor as well.
Safe and Secure
It may also be that Washington actually doesn’t notice how hard this economy is for most Americans. As “Phillip Longman recently noted in the Washington Monthly, the per capita income of Washington, D.C. in 1980 was 29 percent above the average for Americans as a whole; in 2013 that figure was 68 percent.”[ii] That’s 68 percent more! To put this in concrete terms, a person making $15 per hour would be compared to a person making $25 per hour. Or compare a person making $4000 per month to the 68% increase: $6720. Is it any wonder that Washington doesn’t feel the pinch quite so much as Joe American?
Compared to average Americans, Washington is doing a lot better. So why would they worry? For many in the nation’s capital, it must feel like time to fiddle, not worry that Rome is burning. Imagine how you’d be doing with 68 percent more money each month. (68% more of any amount seems fantastic. I’d be fiddling, too.)
Along with the struggling economy—largely a result of Washington’s increasing mountain of red tape that is choking American businesses—the U.S. is continuing to spend a lot of money on national security programs that aren’t working. “Since 9/11,” an investigation in The Atlantic reported, “the United States has spent $1 trillion to protect the homeland. The new security state is vast—and growing.” But “are we any safer?”[iii]
The experts answer that yes, we are a bit safer in some ways.[iv] But not even close to $1 trillion worth—and besides, we are less safe in a number of other ways.[v] Less safe, in fact, than we were when Bush won his second term or Obama was elected the first and second times. Specifically, Al-Qaeda and the Taliban are still around, Iraq is a mess, ISIS is growing, our privacy is dwindling (along with our spending power), and the threats from places like Russia, China, North Korea and Iran have actually increased, along with the growing dangers of cyber and other non-traditional attacks (chemical, biological, lone wolf, dirty bomb, etc.).
It seems the more we spend, the more vulnerable we are. Our lack of a coherent and widely-supported national grand strategy has made things significantly worse over the past decade.
As if this weren’t enough, we are also now facing a growing threat of serious economic conflict with China, which is buying up contracts and supply chains for natural resources around the world. Unlike U.S. firms that work largely on their own capital or that borrowed from banks or investors, all governed by boards and shareholders, Chinese firms are managed by a central government approach—even more controlling than British mercantilism in the 18th and 19th centuries.
We’re right not to follow the Chinese model, since central controls undermine freedom. But the differences between our system and theirs skew the way economic statistics are reported, meaning that few Americans realize how bad our economic outlook really is. For example, in the latest Fortune 100 rankings of the biggest businesses in the world, the U.S. has 38 companies on the list, all of which are private.[vi] In contrast, China has 18 companies on the list; 16 of these are owned by the government.[vii] Combine the totals of these 16 businesses, and the Chinese government owns by far the biggest business in the world.[viii] Nobody else is even close.
Here’s another way to look at this: of the biggest 5 businesses in the world, one (Walmart) is a U.S. company and the next three are Chinese—all owned by the government in Beijing.[ix] The combined revenues of these three Chinese businesses are double that of Walmart, and over three times the revenue of the fifth biggest company in the world, Royal Dutch Shell oil.[x]
In comparison, Europe is home to 29 of the biggest 100 businesses in the world, 28 of which are private, while 1 is owned by the government of France.[xi] Furthermore, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore are home to a total of 11 of the 100, and all are privately owned.[xii] Together Russia, Brazil and Mexico are home to 4 of the world’s largest 100 businesses; 1 (in Russia) is private and the other 3 are government owned (one from each of these nations on the last list).[xiii]
In short, of the world’s biggest 100 businesses and largest producers of global wealth and prosperity, 20 are owned by a government, 16 of them by one single government: China. Yet Washington keeps hobbling American entrepreneurs and investors with increasing regulations that stifle our ability to compete. Yes, China’s economy has slowed a bit this year, but their growth is still way ahead of the United States—and their slowdown will likely mean they’re less willing to keep carrying our debt load (very bad news for our economy).
It’s time for Washington to take note of our gloomy economic outlook, addiction to government overspending and growing debt, and a very expensive and bureaucratic national security apparatus that is more hat than cattle—as the saying goes in Texas. For this vitally important change to happen, we’ve got to stop expecting so much from the White House and demand a lot more from Congress. Until this occurs, we will keep declining in an “attack business, as usual” approach to the economy.
Forward or Back
All this that I have described here is a recipe for major American decline. And it is our current path.
With all that said, I’m an optimist. I believe the best years for America and the world are still ahead. But how soon we initiate those “better years” largely depends on the Congressional elections in 2016. We need a Congress that will finally stand up for the American people (against the executive and judicial branches) and get serious about creating a truly free, booming economy.
We haven’t had such a Congress for decades—and we’ve been in decline ever since that trend started. Such forces of decline are now snowballing, meaning that the actions of the next Congress will largely determine America’s trajectory for the 21st century.
[i] Harry S. Dent, Boom & Bust, July 2016
[ii] Cited in The Atlantic, September 2016, p. 102
[iii] Steven Brill, “Are We Any Safer?” The Atlantic, September 2016
[v] See ibid.
[vi] See Fortune, August 1, 2016, 110-119
October 26th, 2016 // 6:40 am @ Oliver DeMille
And the Real Need in the 2016 Election
Vital Point #1
While the mainstream media focuses on the presidential election, the real battle will be for Congress. Even some members of Congress argue that winning the White House for their party will make all the difference—but that’s only true if the next Congress remains weakly afraid to take on the Oval Office and use the power of the purse to put our economy back on track. The American framers set up the Constitution with exactly this in mind: a strong Congress that keeps the president in check.
Many people consider this election one of the most important of our generation. And it is, but not because of the presidential contest. Put simply:
Regardless of who wins the White House this year, the real issue will be whether we have a weak Congress who lets the executive branch keep increasing spending and decreasing freedoms—or a strong Congress that understands what the Framers intended and uses their Constitutional powers to get our economy back to true free enterprise.
The voters need to understand this, and keep their eye on the ball. This is extremely important.
The two things the next president will do that are near this level of importance are 1) to appoint new members of the Supreme Court, and, 2) heaven forbid, to deal with a major national security problem. So, obviously, the executive election matters as well. But without the right Congress, we’re in for major decline in the coming years—no matter who occupies the Oval Office.
Vital Point #2
The real battle isn’t what most people think. It is being waged in both subtle and open ways, but academia and media seldom mention it directly. Yet this battle will determine our future.
Many think the great battle of our times is one of the following:
- Socialism vs. Capitalism
- International Interventionism vs. America First
- China vs. the United States
- Conservatives vs. Liberals
- Globalism vs. Nationalism
None of these is even close to our biggest challenge. Today’s great war for our future is much larger, significantly deeper, and more impactful than any of these. The great battle of our times is:
Elitism vs. Enterprise
More specifically: Top-Down Elitism vs. Grassroots Free Enterprise. Note that elitism thrives when a few super-rich at the top dominate finance, politics, media, and culture in our society. Enterprise flourishes where the regular people—the masses—have great economic opportunity and as a group determine our economy, government, and social customs/values.
Elitism rules from a few top banks, governmental institutions, exclusive universities, elite media firms, and dominant corporations. Enterprise drives society from the basis of strong families, communities, churches, voluntary service organizations, and small businesses.
But there’s more: Elitism today dominates the top organizations promoting both socialism and capitalism, and it makes up the Establishment of both major political parties. Elitist banks and corporate leaders control the management of those seeking both globalism and national strength. The leading media and academic hawks and doves are nearly all elitists. Elites win by controlling both sides of things—wherever they can.
Elitist investment rules the corporate world, top media providers, and the most powerful special interest groups. Elitist philanthropy controls higher education, the most influential think tanks, and many of the most powerful foundations (most of which operate quietly behind the scenes).
In America, the word Enterprise is frequently coupled with its partner, freedom, in the phrase “Free Enterprise”; but “Free Elitism” is an oxymoron. If it’s truly free, it isn’t elitist.
Indeed, it is elitist influence in Congress and the media that circumvents the Constitution by convincing the House not to utilize its power of the purse to check the White House, the Court, or the Senate. So, yes, the real need in this election is to elect the right Congress—men and women who will use the Constitution as intended.
But the real war runs much deeper: Getting regular people to choose enterprise over elitism, in their votes for Congress and in their everyday education, career and cultural choices as well. This war—to awaken the people to the reality of top-down ruling elitism vs. grassroots free enterprise, and get them to take a stand for free enterprise—is the great battle of our times.
This starts with the most basic principles of learning and livelihood. On an educational level: If you’re not regularly reading the great books, great classics, and great ideas, you’re part of the problem. Concerning career: If you’re not engaging or strongly supporting entrepreneurial ventures, or (at the very barest minimum), encouraging entrepreneurialism among the youth, you’re part of the problem.
If you’re swayed by the education/career conveyor belt, or pushing your children and grandchildren into it, you’re part of the problem. If you’re swayed by the elitist Establishment that dominates both political parties, or their media partners, you’re part of the problem. And if you’re caught in the socialist vs. capitalist or national versus globalist debates (all of which are ultimately led by elitists), you’re part of the problem.
Elitism wins as long as the masses play the elitist’s game. Indeed, many people are actually supporting elitism, either by giving up on their dreams and simply settling for whatever job pays the bills, or by trying to climb the elite ladder and become part of the elite themselves (and/or guiding their children toward the same).
The solution is enterprise. What is your mini-factory, your enterprising project (or projects) that fuels your passion and have the potential to greatly improve the world? If you don’t have such a mini-factory—or find yourself seldom working on it—you aren’t fighting the great battle of our time. And our side is losing.
This battle is real. Current. Dramatic.
It is happening right now.
We need to win it for freedom, for our children and grandchildren, for the future of families and morality and goodness. Which means this: We need your involvement.
(To learn more about creating your own personal mini-factory, and how this will win the battle of our times, read The Coming Aristocracy by Oliver DeMille. Available at the Leadership Education Store)
August 6th, 2016 // 1:33 pm @ Oliver DeMille
I have seen the future, and it is encapsulated in a new book: Passion-Driven Education by Connor Boyack. It will forever change how you think about your children’s education—and your own.
Okay, it doesn’t actually show us the future. But Passion-Driven Education is a masterpiece. It’s an idea whose time has definitely arrived.
Here’s how we got to this point. The old-style education of the 1950s through 2000s was based on rote memorization, multiple-choice standardized exams, bureaucratic presidential reports and programs like A Nation at Risk, No Child Left Behind, and Common Core, and a “big-business” educational mentality that focused on curriculum design (usually one-size-fits-all), teacher training, construction of school buildings, administrative budgets (sometimes increases, other years cuts), and a lot of politics thrown into the mix.
The educational bureaucracy managed to get its fingers into almost everything about education, except actually helping students learn—more effectively, with higher quality and true one-on-one help and individualized learning. A lot of teachers did the unheralded work of quality mentoring, but a majority of students fell through the cracks. Indeed, the emphasis was always on schooling, funding, and educating, while personal student learning was seldom a priority.
And great education was hardly ever mentioned. Mediocrity reigned.
Because of this baggage, right now education is at a fork in the road, and the old educational establishment is struggling to make sense of it. The fundamental problem is that since the GI Bill after World War II, the education industry has hitched itself entirely to job and career training. Before World War II, education was about raising future adults, citizens, and leaders. From Colonial America to Horace Mann in the 1850s and John Dewey in the first half of the 20th century, American education emphasized preparing the next generation to do as well or better than the current one.
But this all changed during the late 1940s and early 1950s: Schools turned their focus to job training. By the 1970s education was fully part of the labor sector—training young people, and middle-aged and older people as well, for jobs. Remove job-training programs and majors from today’s college campuses, and they’ll be ghost towns. High school is now largely focused on college or job prep as well.
The present challenge is that the economy has changed. Drastically. The United States is no longer in a perpetual growth economy. That distinction has shifted to China, India, and other parts of Asia. North America and Europe will most likely experience a slow- or negative-growth economy for many years ahead. Why? Simply because the Baby Boomer generation has now passed it’s peak buying years—it reached its apex in early 2007, and by 2008 it’s spending began to decrease. The economy responded with the Great Recession.
In short: If current trends continue, there will less demand for houses, products, and services for many years to come. As a result, the old economy is gone for good. A new economy, more globalized, more competitive, increasingly rough and tumble, is the new reality. This will last for at least three decades, according to the experts. Possibly five.
What passed as typical education for job- and career-training in the 1950s-2000s simply won’t work any more, at least not in North America or Europe. It will likely flourish in Asia; but most families in, say, Iowa or Wyoming or Virginia aren’t keen on relocating their young adults across the Pacific anytime soon.
All this boils down to a new reality: Unless something changes, people will buy fewer goods and services, so companies will hire less, jobs will be more scarce, and a lot more easily filled. Where does such a shift leave modern education, whose main focus is job training?
The answer is that education is now in a pickle. Most educators and schools (at all levels) are still using a teaching model very similar to what was used in the 1950s, and most of the educational establishment is refusing to change much—hoping that people won’t notice that diplomas and degrees just aren’t translating into lucrative jobs with good benefits like they once did. Expect more and more three-generation households, as young families find joblessness or underemployment incompatible with home ownership and consumer spending.
Past and Future Compared
Just to compare, the economy of The Employment Age (1945-2008) included the following main characteristics:
- Steady work (often with one company over the course of a career)
- Predictably rising pay
- 8-hour work days, 40-hour and 5-day work weeks
- Consistent growth of the middle class
- Each generation doing better financially than the last
(See more details on this era in, for example, The Future of Success by Robert Reich)
But we are now witnessing the rise of a new economic era. The emerging Age of High Risk is offering a different set of realities:
- Off and on work, lots of layoffs, turnover, and outsourcing
- Up and down income
- 12-hour work days for many who are lucky enough to be fully employed, 80-hour and 6-7 day work weeks
- Shrinking of the middle class, and growth of the elite and lower classes
- The next generation doing much worse financially than the last
The result is that the old model of education isn’t working for most people in the new economy. And this trend is only growing.
The next generation needs an education that will effectively prepare them for success in the new reality, the emerging new, global, high-risk, entrepreneurial economy of the 21st century. Anything less is a waste or a distraction. And since only a few schools are seeing the change and effectively doing something about it, a lot more parents need to get serious about education in these new economic realities.
Enter Connor Boyack. His book Passion-Driven Education is just what the doctor ordered. It is a realistic, practical, and well-thought-out call for a reboot of quality education. His message is timely and vital. His book accomplishes the following huge changes:
- It emphasizes personalized, individualized education that puts the student at the center of things—rather than administrators, bureaucratic planners, or the educational professorate. Think of it! The student as the centerpiece of education. This is both incredibly obvious and (given the current state of American education) truly revolutionary.
- It likewise puts learning—not schooling, not administration, not curriculum design/textbook publishing, not teacher training, not presidential educational programs and promises—but actual student learning at the forefront. This is tantamount to a mutiny from the typical modern education system.
- It then goes on to show that student interest, curiosity, passion, love of learning, and the innate enthusiasm to gain knowledge are not just afterthoughts—reserved for clubs, after school or personal time, or extracurricular activities—but the very crux of quality learning.
These three shifts are a masterful call for the kind of education that will actually work, that will put American learning at the forefront of education again—and that will prepare the rising generation for real success in the new economy.
Moreover, Boyack’s book also manages to get back to the heart of what education really is. Long before the focus was job training, education was about becoming. Becoming better: More effectively serving God, family, community, and nation. Education was about becoming your very best. It was about finding yourself, discovering your life purpose, and realizing you were born to serve other people.
This is a major part of the “passion” in passion-driven learning.
Consider the following passage from bestselling author Victor Villasenor about a girl he met who had once been sweet, kind, and service oriented, but after attending school for some time went through a drastic change:
“This girl had been completely educated away from her heart and soul! Her thinking, critical brain had become her only way of viewing the whole world!” (Beyond Rain of Gold, p. 330)
True passion-driven learning adds intellect to morality and the simple virtues, rather than replacing virtue and a heartfelt desire to serve with highbrow disdain for anything except credentialed sophistication, cosmopolitan values and careers, and intellectualism. Passion-driven learning is the real deal.
In all this, Boyack puts the “great” back into education. This is a 5-Star, Top Rate, Two Thumbs Up declaration on what education should be, what it can be, and what it needs to be in the years and decades ahead. Every parent in America should read this book. Every teacher should carefully study and internalize it. And every student should read it as a roadmap of what’s ahead. Passion-Driven Education is brilliant!
August 3rd, 2016 // 9:44 am @ Oliver DeMille
“Some Americans are actually using Facebook to choose the President?”
Some articles are deeply serious, others are informational, and still others ask an important question or share valuable history or principles. This one is meant to be fun. But it also has an underlying reality that is worth considering.
For decades the daily political cartoon in newspapers was the pinnacle of political satire in America. Today memes, vines, and jokes on social media have taken its place, and studying these genres tells us a lot about where the American populace stands on top issues.
For example, investment advisor Charles Sizemore recently noted that now we have two of the most hated political candidates in history—Trump and Hillary. This is mirrored by a popular online joke that goes something like this:
Hillary and Trump are in a boat that is sinking in the middle of the ocean. Who gets saved?
Whether dark humor like this offends or causes laughter—as it does with divergent audiences—it usually only goes viral if it reflects something that resonates, one way or the other. To be frank: This election has much of America baffled. Just plain baffled.
“Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump?” a number of people are asking incredulously. “Really? Those are the only real choices?”
The nation is amazed.
History and Choices
Another meme features a picture of Donald Trump and the caption:
“I don’t always run for president, but when I do, I try to offend as many potential voters as possible.”
Or compare this:
“No matter who you vote for, this election will be historic:
First female president: Hillary Clinton
First Latino president: Marco Rubio
First Jewish president: Bernie Sanders
First Canadian president: Ted Cruz
Last president: Donald Trump”
Some people will laugh at the “Canadian” reference to Cruz. Others will shake their head and call the whole thing tasteless. But the words: “Last President: Donald Trump”? Priceless. Some will agree. Others will adamantly disagree. But it’s worth a laugh. And it communicates something that a lot of people worry about.
Sometimes a certain meme hits really close to home. For example, one says:
“If Bernie Sanders is elected president, he’ll be the first socialist president elected since 2008.”
Another meme shows Senator Clinton with a strong look on her face and the caption:
“Silly Americans. Laws are for poor people.”
A number of the jokes and memes are truly distasteful. Others are downright disgusting. Researching political memes brought me a number of laughs, but the really bad ones made me shake my head in shame for our nation. At least in the days of political cartoons an editor had to sign off. I like the freedom of our current model, but at times people take it too far.
Overall, I don’t know if the memes, vines, and online jokes help our political discourse—or hurt it. Probably some of both. But I do believe that a few of them cleverly capture the nation’s mood in ways we seldom find in the mainstream media. For example, consider the following two memes:
1-A small boy is pictured, about to poke a butter knife into an electrical socket. He’s clearly going to get shocked. The caption reads:
A lot of people are feeling exactly this way right now.
2-Donald Trump is standing next to a huge wall on the border with Mexico, and the wall is lined with gold and stamped with a huge T. The caption reads:
“Think I can’t get Mexico to fund the wall? Well I got the media to fund my campaign!”
Some memes are both sad and funny, like a picture of Jeb Bush with the caption:
“ONE CHILD LEFT BEHIND”
Another meme shows Donald Trump dressed like Biff from Back to the Future, shoving Jeb Bush (dressed as Marty McFly’s teenage dad) into a high school locker. Compare this to a meme with a picture of Nixon. He says: “I deleted 18½ minutes of footage. Hillary Clinton deleted thousands of emails. Who’s the crook now?”
Form Where You’re Standing
I won’t even get into the political vines. They can waste a lot of time, and YouTube is full of the political good, the bad, and the ugly. In fact, on the topic of the election, there is a lot of truly ugly. The memes are typically much tamer. And, the more I compared the two, the memes are generally better—funnier, and more effective. (The funniest of the vines I came across is the Trump/Star Wars Emperor dialogue, with keywords: “Star Wars: Interrupting Trump”.)
The truth is that the political cartoon genre, the idea of political satire that uses one image to cut right to the core of the matter—and forces us to see truths that we may feel but haven’t yet clearly articulated—can be very insightful.
A picture of Star Wars characters carries the caption:
How you see your candidate (picture of Jedi master Obi-wan Kenobi)
How you see their candidate (picture of Darth Vader)
What they’re both really like (picture of Jar Jar Binks)
The kernel of truth in this simple meme is sobering.
With memes, such satire reaches more of the younger generations than the older. But they can teach us all. And over time, I suspect they’ll become more influential.
An important question right now: How will memes and vines impact future campaigns? And what will they evolve into?
By 2020 they could significantly increase in influence. In fact, since Kanye West has already announced his 2020 candidacy for the White House, maybe we’ll see the full election on a real-time streaming reality show app. Keeping Up With the Candidates. Something like this—or worse—is coming, no doubt.
July 22nd, 2016 // 2:49 am @ Oliver DeMille
Loyalties and Addictions
Many nations, and the global market as a whole, are moving from the Loyal Economy to an On-Demand Economy. (See Klaus Schwab, The Fourth Industrial Revolution, 2016, 72) This is just what it sounds like. Our societal focus is increasingly on what we want–not what we need, should want, or have already agreed to.
This shift is impacting work, business, management, leadership, professions, and even families, churches and communities in massive ways. It has already taken a significant toll on relationships in our modern society. Indeed, almost no part of human life has remained untouched by this momentous change.
Just think of all the ways damage can be caused by a shift away from loyalty, and changed to whatever someone wants instead, and you’ve got a pretty good indication of the problem. For example, as a society we have historically been known for being loyal customers—we either love or hate the Yankees, Cowboys, Lakers, etc., and many people have traditionally been very passionate about Ford or Chevy, West Coast or East Coast, City or Farm, New York Times or Wall Street Journal, Prada or Gucci, and so on.
As for Republican and Democrat, these attachments were often multi-generational, and as zealously maintained as one’s religion. For a number of people, these labels (GOP or Democrat) defined “who they really were as people” more than any other feature.
But in the Digital Age we’re losing many of these connections. A lot of people now switch allegiance to sports team based on how the best clubs are playing this season, and we change “favorite” recording artists or television shows almost as often as we change our socks nowadays. We press “Like” one day, and don’t press it the next. Just follow the Twittersphere—changing loyalties is new a national hobby. Or addiction.
With the endless options of the Internet constantly streaming in front of us, it’s not surprising that many customers—most customers in fact—consistently try out new options. Why not? Maybe the next one will be better.
The same is true of many companies. It used to be that good employees were given numbered pins each year or decade—to show how long they’d been at the company. The ideal was once to work your whole life with one organization, move up the ranks a little or a lot, and retire in the same company and town where you started your first job. The whole company threw a party, and you were presented with a gold watch, an engraved silver pen, or another memento of your long-term loyalty.
Today few companies exhibit such loyalty. Some, in fact, routinely purge upper-level management in order to replace more expensive employees with cheaper, younger models who are decades from earning a pension. The laws have made it much easier to carry your retirement savings with you from company to company, and a lot of people are constantly on the lookout for a better job elsewhere. There are popular apps dedicated to this habit.
Given today’s technology, and the nimbleness big organizations must somehow try to exhibit in order to remain relevant, such changes aren’t surprising. In fact, they may simply be the new way of things, the new normal. The old is always being replaced with the new. This week. In fact, in the news cycle Monday’s “crises” and “tragedies” often go unmentioned by Thursday.
Thus it isn’t shocking that our political leanings are going through an era of upheaval as well. During modern periods of economic and cultural stability, a majority of voters stick with the parties. Whether you like this approach or not, it’s usually the reality. Such majorities may be “silent” most of the time, but on election day they vote like the experts knew they would. They toe the party line.
Parties or Menus
We have seen this kind of stability erode a great deal since 2006. The iconic memory of 9/11, followed by the failure to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq or win the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan easily and quickly, threw the electorate for a loop, and the Great Recession that followed moved us decisively away from political stability—at least for a while. China, Russia, the Middle East, North Korea, fluctuating prices, an economy that never seems to recover, and so many other things contribute to a growing sense of chaos, and of things getting worse.
Indeed, elections seem to get crazier and crazier. Predictions by the top experts, and the masses of talking heads, are now routinely wrong.
This isn’t driven by a cycle, however, meaning that we can’t chalk it all up to “a phase” the nation is going through before it reverts back to its traditional, normal behaviors. Cycles and trends do sometimes explain things that happen, but this time something more is going on. The rise of nearly-ubiquitious digital mobility is still in its infancy, and it is quickly restructuring politics (along with marriage, family, community, education, career, business, the economy, etc.).
Voters are less and less likely to be Loyalty Voters, emotionally attached to one party that stands for their culture, their beliefs, their family traditions. Indeed, in a world where more and more people are routinely questioning their birth culture and family traditions, they’re not likely to let loyalties based on these things get in the way of change.
Specifically, we are entering a Pragmatic Era in politics, where people want on-demand government. They want a menu of options to choose from, not a political party and its bureaucracy. They don’t really want to choose between candidates. They want a little of what one candidate has, but without the rest of his ideas. They want some of what another candidate promotes, minus his personal views, or his stand on [fill in the blank…]. They like what they hear from one candidate on one day, but disagree with what she says the next.
It’s not so much a targeted electorate where the candidates try to win over the biggest special interests—like it has been for the past two decades. What’s emerging now is, to repeat, a growing clamor for on-demand politics. Voters want to unbundle government. They want to be able to select “yes” items and “no” items from every candidate running for high office.
In other words, they want Washington to live in the Digital Age. They want to directly email—or, better still, text—presidential candidates and have an on-going dialogue with them, and then continue the dialogue after the president is elected.
“I liked your speech yesterday at Georgetown, except for the part on naval upgrading. What actually needs to happen is…”
Moreover, they want the President to answer their email.
“Thanks, Amy. I see your point. I’m meeting with the Joint Chiefs later today and I’m going to tell them your recommendation—and order them to do it. They really need it. Good thing you’re on our side and sent me that email.”
Today’s voters want the government to respond the way Amazon does. Immediately. In fact, they want to be able to sign up for the President’s Prime service—free answers within the hour, and nearly-immediate government implementation of whatever you tell the Oval Office to do.
“Get your policy implemented by Tuesday at 8 p.m., if you order it in the next 8 hours and 41 minutes. To get it by Monday at 8 p.m., pay an extra $3.99 and click here…”
As a result of this shift in voter expectations from their government (and the fact that government is still stuck in the 60s–or maybe the 70s–ways of doing things), hardly anyone is truly happy with any election anymore. Presidents Bush and Obama may well be the last loyalty-backed presidents. Indeed, barring a major military threat that unites the nation against a common enemy and brings back a loyalistic approach, most future presidents may well be one-termers.
That’s worth repeating. We may be entering an epoch of one-term presidencies. We’ve already seen the voters moving this way with their seeming schizophrenia in presidential versus Congressional elections. They routinely put one party’s candidate in the White House and simultaneously fill the Congress with the opposing party.
Again, what the voters really want is a truly on-demand system, where they can elect national leaders and direct their actions issue by issue, “no” on this, “yes” on that—preferably with a click of their computer—er, smartphone. This is leading in the direction of more democracy, specifically a more democratic system built around online voting. And, honestly, most modern Americans see this idea as excellent, obvious, and overdue.
In response, I have two words:
If you have studied them in depth, you know exactly what I mean.
But most people haven’t.
And that means we’re in for a wild political ride just ahead. It might contain a series of one-termer presidents (the nation swinging pendulum-like to and fro, then back again, over and over), a serious party shakeup with a new dominant national political party (or two), or it might be something even more surprising.
Whatever is coming, there is a widespread sense that it’s big. And we don’t even have Steve Jobs to walk out on a black stage in his black t-shirt and announce the future. If he were still around, he’d tell us to hold on to our hats, because this flight into the Era of populism, globalism, voter pragmatism, and digital-age on-demand revolution is just beginning. And the only thing we know for sure is that it’s going to get bumpy.
(Solution: It’s more important than ever for regular people to deeply study the core principles of freedom! The politicians and “experts” aren’t going to fix this for us—they’re the ones piloting the current chaos. For a beginning reading list of core freedom principles—and audios to go with each— join Black Belt in Freedom)