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The Turning Point of the Election

The Turning Point of the Election

August 22nd, 2012 // 7:43 am @

Based on the current breakdown of the electoral vote, if President Obama wins Florida, he’ll win the election.

Governor Romney would have to carry every other battleground state if he loses Florida.

Similarly, if Romney wins Florida, he’ll take the election.

We’ve always known that the election would be determined by a few battleground states, but it has now come down to two states: Ohio and Florida.

And Ohio only counts if the candidate who loses Florida is able to win all the other battleground states.

It appears that as goes Florida, so goes the election.

Let’s consider a few thoughts about this.

First, while the 2012 Democratic Convention will be held in North Carolina, the Republican Convention will be in Tampa, Florida.

“All politics is local,” Tip O’Neill said, and the energy of the national convention in Florida is an advantage for Romney.

The popularity of Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio in the state also benefits the Republicans.

Second, however, Florida is a swing state precisely because it is too close to call.

There are at least three contested voting groups that both sides are courting: the Latino vote, seniors, and transplants from New York and New England.

All three have natural leanings toward the Democratic Party, and President Obama is a talented politician who knows how to effectively appeal to targeted constituencies.

Expect him to actively attract all three in the weeks ahead, and for the Romney-Ryan ticket to attempt the same.

Third, Israel could be a tipping point in this vote.

There is significant support for Israel in Florida, not only among conservatives but also from seniors and Northern transplants.

Washington insiders during the past week have been floating the rumor that Israel may be planning a military action against Iran—timed close to or during one of the 2012 conventions in order to give pro-Israel Romney a chance to speak directly in support of Israel and simultaneously make it more difficult for Obama to take a strong stance against the Netanyahu government.

Fourth, Obama handily won Florida in 2008, carrying a majority of the female vote and a large majority of minority voters.

The Romney-Ryan ticket is playing from behind in both Florida and Ohio, and the election may well be determined by which party organization generates the biggest voter turnout on November 6.

People typically have a sense about an upcoming election, based on the views and thoughts of those around them.

In red states, the overwhelming support for the Republican candidate convinces most that the election results are all but determined in their favor.

People in blue states are persuaded that the Democratic contender has a huge lead.

In reality, the election of 2012 could well come down to a few votes in a few Florida counties.

But before we have recurring dreams of hanging chads and the Supreme Court joining the election, we should remember that the one sure rule of presidential politics is to expect the unexpected.


odemille 133x195 custom Egypt, Freedom, & the Cycles of HistoryOliver DeMille is the chairman of the Center for Social Leadership and co-creator of Thomas Jefferson Education.

He is the author of A Thomas Jefferson Education: Teaching a Generation of Leaders for the 21st Century, and The Coming Aristocracy: Education & the Future of Freedom.

Oliver is dedicated to promoting freedom through leadership education. He and his wife Rachel are raising their eight children in Cedar City, Utah.

Category : Blog &Current Events &Featured &Government &Politics

2 Comments → “The Turning Point of the Election”

  1. Allen Levie

    11 years ago

    I wonder what the strategy is in Florida. It’d be nice to see some affective to-do list items motivating the people who support him from states like Utah.

    The people in Florida are likely tired of being pounded by traditional means, phone calls, television, newspaper and visits. I was quite disappointed with what occurred in Utah regarding the candidates that I supported, though I know its an apples to oranges comparison.

  2. Keith

    11 years ago

    Something to consider. The alternative media is moving fast into both Florida and Ohio, talking up their issues in front of massive audiences. In fact, the author of Dreams of my Real Father recently secured funding to send hundreds of thousands of DVD’s of his documentary to registered voters in just Florida and Ohio. ALex Jones had the largest event in florida for a single speaker just a few months ago in Tampa and several 50,000 watt talk radio stations in Florida have syndicated his show, and Ron Paul has spent an enormous amount of time at colleges and universities in Ohio and Florida, and he will have his own campaign for liberty convention at the same time as the GOP convention. While it may be Florida and Ohio that determine the election, the independent voice will determine the vote. Since the last election, the independent mind has grown exponentially more influential. I am not hopping for much. I just see a massive information flow not recognized by the mainstream, and it is growing.

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